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Mark Lister

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
235 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Now that outpaced the local share market and it eroded a whole decade's worth of house price rises.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

There weren't many places for investors to hide through this period.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Gold and commodities were two of the only things that performed well

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Gold surged 14-fold over the 1970s, and it's never come even remotely close to repeating those returns.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

It did about 30% per annum for the whole 10 years.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Farmland was also strong on the back of high commodity prices and demand for tangible assets that would be better insulated from that higher inflation.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So US farm prices increased 13.8% per annum over that decade.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Now, it's really difficult to pinpoint exactly what led to this environment.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Soaring oil prices were definitely a part of it, as was high government spending, wage demands from very powerful trade unions, this is in the US, and all of those things together conspired to end the prosperity of the previous two decades.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

The 1950s and the 1960s were pretty prosperous in the United States, but the energy shock

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

was probably the biggest factor.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So that has a real similarity with what we're seeing today.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Now back then, it was because the oil producing countries cut supply in the wake of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

That was a conflict between a coalition of Arab states and Israel.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

And that saw oil prices soar from about US$3 a barrel to four times that in a pretty short space of time.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So American oil production had already peaked a few years before this, and it just couldn't keep up with the growing demand from vehicles, from all those gas-guzzling V8s from the 60s that people like me know and love.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So rising fuel prices hit the US economy hard, and that led to higher transport costs, wage growth, and overall price increases.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So you look at the 1960s, and you had a US inflation rate that had averaged about 2.5%.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Unemployment had fallen as low as 3.4%.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

and interest rates had remained fairly stable and low.