Mark Lister

speaker

3,927 appearances 39 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard yesterday

Mark Lister’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 39 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 10.

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On Point · ep 399 | What does a Fed hiking cycle mean for markets? · 22 Sep 2026 podcast

And on average, we saw the Fed lift interest rates by a little more. matched

Than four percentage points. matched

This is really important. matched

The start of a Fed hiking cycle does not necessarily spell doom for the US economy or the share market. matched

In those eight previous examples, the economy fell into recession within three years of that start on four occasions. matched

So not great odds, it's 50-50, that's a coin flip, but I guess my point is. matched

That history suggests that recessions are far from inevitable. matched

As for the US share market, it has held its own quite often in the face of rate hikes. matched

Looking back at all of those examples, the SP 500 index was higher 12 months after liftoff. matched

Liftoff is that first rate hike. matched

So 12 months after that first rate hike, the SP 500 was higher. matched

On six occasions, six out of eight. matched

And the average return across all eight was an increase of 5.2%. matched

So not terrible. matched

Of the two declines, two out of eight, we saw a 12-month fall in the SP 500 after liftoff. matched

But of those two declines, one was a very marginal fall of 0.1%. matched

So pretty much flat. matched

And that was after. matched

The first move and the hiking cycle of 1983. matched

So that one doesn't really count. matched

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