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Mark Lister

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
235 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So it wasn't a bad environment at all.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

The 60s were a good decade for the US economy.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

But fast forward to 1974, and inflation had surged to 10%.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

The central bank policy interest rate was almost 13%.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Unemployment had risen from in the threes to almost 9%.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

and the US economy was in recession.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So it was a really tough time for everybody, including investors.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

I guess if you were lucky enough to have money to invest at that time, you were doing better than most.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

But it was a really challenging time, the 1970s.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Here in New Zealand, we suffered a similar fate, but we were already hurting from falling wool prices and a sharp devaluation in the Kiwi dollar.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Remember back in those days it wasn't floated, it was sort of government controlled, so they chose to devalue it when they thought they needed to, and we'd just seen a big devaluation.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

That had made imported fuel even more expensive.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

And on top of that, we had to contend with our major export market of the time, which was Britain,

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

joining the European Economic Community.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

That happened in 1973.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

And that effectively excluded us from the British market, which was our biggest export market at the time.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

So our share of exports that went to Britain fell from 43% in 1960 to less than 15%, which is a massive change over 20 years, from 43% to under 15%.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

Now, to be clear, the 1970s were a really unique period and we are a long, long way from that today despite fuel prices that have been much higher and despite fears that we will potentially see a broader inflation spike.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

However, the current situation definitely bears monitoring.

On Point
ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?

We do have to keep an eye on this.