Mark Lister

speaker

3,927 appearances 39 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard yesterday

Mark Lister’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 39 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 10.

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On Point · ep 399 | What does a Fed hiking cycle mean for markets? · 22 Sep 2026 podcast

The other exception does count because that was the most recent hiking cycle before now. matched

That is the one that started in 2022, and that was obviously after that COVID period where inflation had surged to a 40-year high. matched

Now that was a really tough year for US shares, 2022, and from start to finish. matched

Or from top to bottom, I should say, the SP 500 fell 25% from its peak in January of that year to its October low. matched

And that doesn't marry up with when the hiking cycle started, but uh it does hopefully just paint a picture of how challenging that year was, down 25% in uh 10 months or thereabouts. matched

Now, rate hikes weren't the only reason for that fall, but they did continue. matched

Contribute because back then the Fed increased interest rates from 0.25% right up to 5.5% in less than 18 months. matched

So that was one of the most aggressive hiking cycles that we've seen in decades. matched

Actually, the US economy proved remarkably resilient though during that period. matched

We didn't see a recession, and that resilience might have set the scene for the very strong. matched

Strong rebound that followed that period. matched

So even though it was a big fall, 25% down from January to October, not saying that's going to happen again, but uh this was a really tough period uh for the US share market, the toughest in recent memory. matched

It actually proved to be a very, very attractive buying opportunity because as we all know. matched

2023, 2024, 2025, and this year have been pretty good for US shares. matched

Anyway, no recession in the wake of that hiking cycle. matched

Four years later, still no recessionary alarm bells ringing. matched

Investor sentiment also got an unexpected boost back then. matched

In late 2022, that was when you saw the launch of Chat GPT and the AI boom obviously followed that. matched

So I guess my point is that markets can still perform well in the face of rate hikes, especially in the early stages of a tightening cycle, because there is a positive side to the Fed's decision that we shouldn't overlook. matched

The decision from last week, that is, to raise rates. matched

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