Mark Lister

speaker

3,927 appearances 39 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard 2d ago

Mark Lister’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 39 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 10.

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On Point · ep 399 | What does a Fed hiking cycle mean for markets? · 22 Sep 2026 podcast

And that is that central banks often increase interest rates, in part at least, because economies are strong. matched

Strong rather than weak, and those conditions don't disappear overnight, even though you do start to see uh borrowing costs creep up. matched

So at the moment, consumer spending in the US not perfect, but still looking fairly resilient, uh, the labor market pretty solid, and growth has continued to surprise on the upside. matched

So every hiking cycle is different, uh, the backdrop is always different. matched

This time around, a lot could be riding on the situation in the Middle East because energy prices have been a big contributor to the resurgence that we've seen in headline inflation. matched

Now, if tensions in the region subside and oil prices fall back a little bit, we should see headline inflation moderate too. matched

And that could happen quite quickly, which would potentially reduce the need for a strength. matched

Of rate increases from here. matched

Now that's a big if, of course, and things could happen in the other direction too. matched

We could see further escalation, which would have the opposite effect. matched

That would see oil prices rise further than they already have or stay elevated, and that could put pressure on inflation to the upside, which would mean the Fed might have to do more. matched

But right now, when we look back at what the Fed said last. matched

Last week the chair Kevin Walsh described that move, that first move as removing a dose of accommodation. matched

So that sort of wording does suggest that more rate hikes from here are on the cards. matched

Markets don't see the increases being of the magnitude that we've seen in some past cycles. matched

So you look at that average over the last eight hiking cycles since 1980. matched

What was it, a little more than 4% in terms of the total move upwards? matched

The market doesn't see that on the cards. matched

And it certainly doesn't see anything like 2022 when we went from 0.25% to 5.5%. matched

So right now there's about one percentage point of additional tightening currently expected over the next year or so. matched

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