Mark Lister

Now, when you cast your mind back to the last release, which was the final three months of calendar 2025, so the December quarter, we saw confidence hit an 11-year high.

So very good.

Hiring intentions jumped.

Investment intentions were pretty solid too.

that is expected to reverse because of what we've seen in the Middle East and what that means for confidence and price expectations and cost expectations.

So businesses are likely to be markedly more cautious in the face of that surge in oil prices and the

associated expectation of falling demand and rising cost pressures.

If we look at the corresponding ANZ business outlook surveys, those come out monthly.

The QSBO is only out quarterly.

The ANZ business outlook surveys for the same period probably give us a good steer of what we will see in the QSBO on Tuesday morning.

That same day, in fact, just 45 minutes later at 10.45 a.m., we will get the March 2026 quarter inflation report, the consumer price index for New Zealand.

Now, the headline inflation rate currently sitting at 3.1%, and that's the first time it's been above the top of the RBNZ's 1% to 3% target band since the middle of 2024, so almost two years ago.

So the RBNZ has that target range of 1% to 3%.

It's their job to keep inflation within that range.

And they obviously aim for a midpoint of 2%.

So they've pushed above that range now.

They've let it go up to 3.1%.

They haven't been too concerned up till now because they were expecting it to come back into that range this week.

down to 2.8%, and then I think down to 2.7% in the June quarter.

But things have changed with the higher fuel prices and what they mean, so the Reserve Bank is now expecting it to come in at 3%.