Mark Zandi
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
That firewall will come down.
And then we're in recession.
And that's why we're so close to recession.
Businesses have done everything they can to avoid layoffs.
They've cut hiring.
They've cut hours.
They've cut temp jobs.
The last thing they'll do, and we're right there, is start to lay off.
And that's why we're so close and why recession probabilities are as high as they are.
But also why they're less than even.
We still have not yet seen those layoffs.
Well, a very unsatisfying answer.
It goes back to that word, uncertainty.
I mean, that's what economists are saying, which is not satisfying because it's hard to prove.
As you said, how do you build that into your models?
But that's kind of what you do when you're uncertain.
I keep using the phrase, sit on your hands.
That's what everyone's been doing, sitting on their hands.
And that would mean no hiring.
I do think AI is probably playing a bit of a role here.