Mark Zandi

It's close to, as I said, it's pretty much sticking to script.

Yeah, I think prices are permanently higher.

I mean, when I say permanent, nothing's permanent, but at least in the foreseeable future, this year, next year, the year after, you know, there's no going back to the 60, 65 bucks a barrel we were paying before all this mess.

You know, there's the points you're making about the Iranians charging a fee.

We'll see if that sticks or not.

At this point, it feels like that's probably the path forward here.

That's

The one way the president can stand down and declare victory and move on, even though it's, you know, a victory only in name, you know, all we need is for the president to use that as a way to extricate himself in the military from all this.

But you're still left with a fee that's not inconsequential.

And then, of course, insurance companies are going to demand a higher insurance premium for insuring the traffic that moves through the street because, you know, who knows what will happen in the future.

Right.

And then traders are going to demand a risk premium.

They're not going to hold old prices without a premium, thinking that, again, the Iranian regime is still in place and can still create havoc and more than likely at some point will.

Therefore, you've got to pay me a higher fee.

So if you told me –

After everything kind of normalizes, winds down, hopefully that's by the end of the year, that oil prices are at $80 a barrel.

That sounds about right to me.

So we were at $60.

We got as high as $110 before the ostensible ceasefire.

With the ceasefire, the oil is now trading at $95.