Mark Zandi

One, they don't know how this is all going to play out.

You know, what exactly is the ceasefire?

Is it going to hold?

You know, what does it mean?

Where are all the parties going?

I'm giving you my forecast, but I say it with no confidence.

So reason number one for doing nothing, sitting on their hands, is the uncertainty.

The other is the nature of the shock, just like tariffs.

It weakens growth.

It hurts the job market.

And since Liberation Day a year ago, we've created no jobs.

You know, some months up, some months down, but net-net, we've gone nowhere.

And now you're throwing this into the mix.

All else equal, that would say to the Fed, you should be cutting interest rates, right, because your mandate is full employment.

But conversely, you have higher inflation and your other mandate is low and stable inflation.

So all is equal, that argues for higher interest rates.

So the net of all that is, I don't know.

I'm just going to sit on my hands.

I think the deciding factor for the Fed ultimately will be inflation expectations.

You know, if in fact...