Mark Zuckerberg

But I certainly have not decided on that yet.

And I think that it becomes a somewhat more complex set of questions that I think people will have time to debate and will also be informed by what happens between now and then to make those decisions.

We don't have to necessarily just debate that in theory right now.

i don't know i mean that's pure speculation i think it's uh i think it's very clear just taking a step back that we had a big breakthrough in the last year yes right where the the llms and diffusion models basically reached a a scale where they're able to do some some pretty interesting things and then i think the question is what happens from here and just to paint the two extremes on the um

on one side it's like okay we just had one breakthrough if we just have like another breakthrough like that or maybe two then we can have something that's truly crazy right and and is like is um just like so much more advanced and and on that side of the argument it's like okay well maybe we're um

Maybe we're only a couple of big steps away from reaching something that looks more like general intelligence.

Okay, that's one side of the argument.

And the other side, which is what we've historically seen a lot more, is that a breakthrough leads to...

In that Gartner hype cycle, there's the hype and then there's the trough of disillusionment after when people think that there's a chance that, hey, okay, there's a big breakthrough.

Maybe we're about to get another big breakthrough.

And it's like, actually, you're not about to get another breakthrough.

Maybe you're actually just gonna have to sit with this one for a while.

And it could be...

It could be five years.

It could be 10 years.

It could be 15 years until you figure out the kind of the next big thing that needs to get figured out.

But I think that the fact that we just had this breakthrough sort of makes it so that we're at a point of almost a very wide error bars on what happens next.

I think the traditional technical view, like looking at the industry, would suggest that we're not just going to stack

in a like breakthrough on top of breakthrough on top of breakthrough, like every six months or something right now, I think it will guessing, I would guess that it will, that it will take somewhat longer in between these, but, um,

I don't know.