Martin Lewis

is what happens next. And that's where the problems come in, and that's why the chancellor has just said she is keeping a watching brief on it. The current predictions for the October price cap are it will go up again 4.5%, and then the January price cap up again 0.6%. Now what I need to say is while my prediction or the analyst's prediction for the July price cap is likely to be pretty accurate,

We are only a few days into the assessment period for the October price cap, so there's quite a lot of crystal ball gazing there, and there's even more crystal ball gazing for the January price cap. But what I would say is even if the Middle East conflict ended next week, because of the damage to the infrastructure in the Middle East and the hits on Qatari gas plants, and it's all about natural gas that dictates the primary costs we play, and that's the wholesale rate that really matters,

It is very unlikely, unless there is policy intervention, we can see October's price cap coming down to where we are now. It might not go up 4.5%, it might come down a little bit, but I think it would be unlikely for it to come down to where we are right now.

It is more plausible if the Middle East conflict ended soon that we'd see the January price cap come down to where we are now. But I go back to what the analysts, and this is a whole different group of analysts and this is an average, their average predictions are it's going up 13% in January, pretty locked in, up 4.5% in October.

Less definite, but it's still likely to be higher than it is now, and then up 0.6% in January. So that doesn't look good. And why do I say all this? Why is this important? Well, if you are on the price cap, you can fix right now for roughly...

the level of the current price cap. So if you want to avoid those rises because you are risk averse, you can get off the current price cap, don't go with your own company because there's very few cheap fixes available, go onto a whole of market comparison site and you can lock in roughly the current price cap rate for the next year, which is how you prevent the risk of those price rises in winter. I can't say there'll definitely be huge prices in winter, but if you are worried about it, the risk averse thing to do is to fix.

Okay, so I think we should probably do, before we get into that, who is on the price cap. Okay. Because this is really, I'll just tell you a little anecdote. I was doing a talk with about 600 people, and I asked them this question, so maybe everybody listening at home can answer this in their own head. First question I said is, are you on a fixed tariff, or a special tariff, like an EV tariff, or a time of use tariff? And just about 30% of the 600 people put their hands up.

Minun seuraava kysymys oli, että oletko sinä tarjouksessa? Noin viisi ihmistä laittoi käsiä. Meillä oli 200, jotka laittoi käsiä tarjouksista. Viisi laittoi käsiä tarjouksista, ja kaikki muu laittoi käsiä. Sanoin, että laittoi käsiä, jos et laittoi käsiä. Ja kaikki muu laittoi käsiä. Ja sanoin, että kaikki laittoi tarjouksista, melkein varmasti.

Ja iso ongelma näistä tarinoista on se, että minä puhun tarvittaesta ja tarvittaesta on termi, mutta ihmiset eivät ole varma, onko se onnistunut. Joten laitetaan tämä todella suoraan. Puhun sinulle, kun sanon tarvittaesta, jos et ole tarvittava tai erityinen ratkaisu, kuten EV-tariffi tai aikavälin tariffi.

If you've not done anything to choose your energy tariff in probably over a year, maybe over two years, you're on the price cap. The price cap is your firm's standard variable tariff, the default tariff, the tariff you move to when a special deal ends, the tariff you're on if you haven't chosen to do anything. The price cap is dictated by Ofgem, the regulator. It sets the maximum unit rates and standing charges those firms can charge on those standard variable tariffs only. Fixes can be cheaper, standard variable tariff.

No, ne voivat olla parempia, se on kappale, mutta melkein kaikkien yritykset tarjoavat kappaleen yli 1 quidin tai 2 quidin. Ainoa yksityiskohtainen on Home Energy, joka on hieman erilaista versiota. Yksityiskohtainen tariffi on suurin piirtein parempi kuin kappale, ja se on se, miten se toimii. Mutta kaikkea muuta, kaikkea isoja nimiä, sinä olet kappaleen kappaleessa, jos et ole järjestänyt mitään erilaisia asioita. Joten kun sanon kappaleen kappaleen, puhun sinulle. Onko se haastavaa, että jätät läpi teidän tehtävääsi? Ei kontrakteja, ei rahaa, sanoo hän.

No, I mean, you've got no contract, no debt. It's absolutely easy. You switch provider. It's new provider-led. They will switch you across. Any credit you're owed by your old provider once your final meter readings are in will be paid to you, and you'll now have the new provider, and it will provide your service. And absolutely, you need to go onto a comparison site. Now, I would suggest you go onto a comparison site that is whole of market by default. Unfortunately...

There's only one main one, and I'm not allowed to name it, so you can probably have a guess of what it is. If you're going on to another comparison site, the most important thing I can suggest you do right now, most comparison sites hide tariffs that don't pay them. So you will not be doing whole of market, and most of the cheapest fixes right now don't pay comparison sites. So if you do a comparison on most comparison sites, you will be missing the cheapest deals. If you're on those sites, what you need to do is scroll down to the bottom, or it might be in the left-hand menu, and there'll be somewhere relatively small that will say,

Show all tariffs. You want a tick? Show all tariffs. They're not shouting about the fact you can show all tariffs, but there'll be a tick somewhere to show all tariffs. So if you're not on the one that's whole of market by default, if you tick show all tariffs, you will then see a whole of market comparison, and you absolutely need that at the moment. It takes you five minutes. These days comparison sites know your usage. You'll then move across. For most people, this is pretty swift and easy.

Ignore monthly direct debits. Please ignore monthly direct debits when you're comparing. There are two totally separate things that indicate what you pay on energy bills. The most important is the rate. What is the standing charge, the daily charge? What is the unit rate, the amount you pay for each unit, each kilowatt hour of gas and electricity you use?

They are what dictate the total amount you pay. Your monthly direct debit is based upon both the rates you'll pay, but also that firm's estimate of how much you will use.

So a firm may be charging you a higher direct debit because it's estimating you're using more even though its rates are lower. That is the firm that you will pay less to in total. That is the firm that is cheapest. You just need to go to it and say you're overestimating my direct debit. I'd like a lower direct debit. You cannot compare.

on the direct debit that two firms give you, because that's just about their estimating process, and you can always get them, or you have a right under section 27 of the Gas and Electricity License Code, to get them a fair direct debit. So if the direct debit's too high because they've overestimated, you can bring it down. But you're comparing on the unit rates and the standing charges, not on the monthly direct debit. That's a red herring.

Tämä kuulostaa erittäin niin, mitä Rachel Reeves sanoi aiemmin. Hän puhui siitä, että olemme saaneet 150 rupiaa energiaa. Se on todella mielenkiintoista, kun teet tätä aina. 150 rupiaa energiaa on yleensä otettu pois.

Tämä oli tehty yhdistämällä yksi elementti, ekoskeemi, ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen ilmastonmuutoksen