Matt Wolf

Yeah, thanks, Scott. So a quick background on myself. I spent nearly 20 years in the sort of M&A valuation space, working closely with sponsors, founder-owned companies, buy side, sell side, kind of throughout the transaction cycle. And over the last six, seven years, really stepped into a role as not only a client server, but as an analyst, studying these macroeconomic and industry trends that

sort of funnel m&a activity influence executive decision makers strategies and execution of those strategies and yeah it's been never a dull day even before all of the the recent uncertainty and volatility and Es ist ein absoluter Wippsaal von Informationen. Und einfach alles voranzubringen, ist im Grunde ein Vollzeitjob.

sort of funnel m&a activity influence executive decision makers strategies and execution of those strategies and yeah it's been never a dull day even before all of the the recent uncertainty and volatility and Es ist ein absoluter Wippsaal von Informationen. Und einfach alles voranzubringen, ist im Grunde ein Vollzeitjob.

Und was ich sehe, was ich sehe, ist die vorwärtssehenden Signale von Entscheidungsführern, von Geschäftsführern, was die nächsten zwölf Monate aussehen werden. We've seen a lot of major banks and other houses have signaled a base case for recession in the next 12 months.

Und was ich sehe, was ich sehe, ist die vorwärtssehenden Signale von Entscheidungsführern, von Geschäftsführern, was die nächsten zwölf Monate aussehen werden. We've seen a lot of major banks and other houses have signaled a base case for recession in the next 12 months.

It might look something like the prior issues with inventory, supply chains, everything grinding to a halt is a potential scenario that I'm kind of watching and interested in.

It might look something like the prior issues with inventory, supply chains, everything grinding to a halt is a potential scenario that I'm kind of watching and interested in.

We've seen a lot of companies pull back on spending for consulting, advisory services as they focus on securing enough supplies and inventory ahead of any potential tariffs, particularly as certainly consumer products companies and others are gearing up for. already for back to school, even holiday shopping for 2025. And what is this uncertainty going to do with there?

We've seen a lot of companies pull back on spending for consulting, advisory services as they focus on securing enough supplies and inventory ahead of any potential tariffs, particularly as certainly consumer products companies and others are gearing up for. already for back to school, even holiday shopping for 2025. And what is this uncertainty going to do with there?

And this is the thing very few people are talking about is M&A, right? Going into 2025, we had hoped that it would be a robust year for deal making as sponsors and sort of older vintage funds were looking to exit. Ja, das stimmt. But it's really been muted compared to where our expectations were even three months ago.

And this is the thing very few people are talking about is M&A, right? Going into 2025, we had hoped that it would be a robust year for deal making as sponsors and sort of older vintage funds were looking to exit. Ja, das stimmt. But it's really been muted compared to where our expectations were even three months ago.

And there's no real sign to suggest that that will improve until we're on the other end of sort of this economic cycle, on the other end of the sort of likely recession.

And there's no real sign to suggest that that will improve until we're on the other end of sort of this economic cycle, on the other end of the sort of likely recession.

Yeah, you know, it's just an interesting point that just as a corollary to just a few years ago, which feels like a long time ago of, well, we, you know, as we were emerging from the pandemic, there was a lot of talk about a soft landing. What does that look like?

Yeah, you know, it's just an interesting point that just as a corollary to just a few years ago, which feels like a long time ago of, well, we, you know, as we were emerging from the pandemic, there was a lot of talk about a soft landing. What does that look like?

What has to go right for us to hit this soft landing in terms of just the right monetary, fiscal, policy, other economic factors that will deliver us through the pandemic without A recession. And, you know, we largely achieved that going forward. What we're hearing is and what they're talking about is where is the soft landing?

What has to go right for us to hit this soft landing in terms of just the right monetary, fiscal, policy, other economic factors that will deliver us through the pandemic without A recession. And, you know, we largely achieved that going forward. What we're hearing is and what they're talking about is where is the soft landing?

Like there is no path for that soft landing, no real path that people can see or that is likely to occur. And so there's sort of, you know, what I'm hearing and what we're looking at is what what is sort of the worst case scenario? How do we there's so much uncertainty. How do we prepare for the worst? First of all, trying to figure out what that even looks like is difficult.

Like there is no path for that soft landing, no real path that people can see or that is likely to occur. And so there's sort of, you know, what I'm hearing and what we're looking at is what what is sort of the worst case scenario? How do we there's so much uncertainty. How do we prepare for the worst? First of all, trying to figure out what that even looks like is difficult.

What is a likely bad or worst case scenario? And then how do we prepare for that? So in terms of deploying money, making acquisitions, I mean, it's