Private Equity Outlook: Recession Risks, Market Uncertainty & Deal-Making Slowdown with Matt Wolf 4-11-25
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Die Plattform, die wir vor Shopify verwendet haben, hat regelmäßig Updates gebraucht, die teilweise dazu geführt haben, dass der Shop nicht funktioniert hat.
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Starte dein Testen heute für 1 Euro pro Monat auf shopify.de. This is Scott Becker with the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. We're thrilled today to be joined by one of our top three most listened to guests of all time. We're joined by Matt Wolf, who's a brilliant, brilliant analyst. And Matt talks to us regularly about what's going on in the PE world, what's going on in sort of the M&A world and a lot more. Matt, it's been a fascinating time in the market. Some good, some bad, some ugly and a lot more. Tell us about yourself and your background and then let's talk about what you're watching currently.
Yeah, thanks, Scott. So a quick background on myself. I spent nearly 20 years in the sort of M&A valuation space, working closely with sponsors, founder-owned companies, buy side, sell side, kind of throughout the transaction cycle. And over the last six, seven years, really stepped into a role as not only a client server, but as an analyst, studying these macroeconomic and industry trends that sort of funnel m&a activity influence executive decision makers strategies and execution of those strategies and yeah it's been never a dull day even before all of the the recent uncertainty and volatility and Es ist ein absoluter Wippsaal von Informationen. Und einfach alles voranzubringen, ist im Grunde ein Vollzeitjob.
Und was ich sehe, was ich sehe, ist die vorwärtssehenden Signale von Entscheidungsführern, von Geschäftsführern, was die nächsten zwölf Monate aussehen werden. We've seen a lot of major banks and other houses have signaled a base case for recession in the next 12 months. It might look something like the prior issues with inventory, supply chains, everything grinding to a halt is a potential scenario that I'm kind of watching and interested in. We've seen a lot of companies pull back on spending for consulting, advisory services as they focus on securing enough supplies and inventory ahead of any potential tariffs, particularly as certainly consumer products companies and others are gearing up for. already for back to school, even holiday shopping for 2025. And what is this uncertainty going to do with there?
And this is the thing very few people are talking about is M&A, right? Going into 2025, we had hoped that it would be a robust year for deal making as sponsors and sort of older vintage funds were looking to exit. Ja, das stimmt. But it's really been muted compared to where our expectations were even three months ago. And there's no real sign to suggest that that will improve until we're on the other end of sort of this economic cycle, on the other end of the sort of likely recession.
Yeah, no, and it seems like there's lots of, there is a lot of chatter about The economy in general had its own issues prior to sort of engulfing in sort of a trade battle or trade war. And so you sort of have two big macro things going on and obviously will also be quite connected. zu dem, was mit dieser Handelskriegswahl mit anderen Ländern und den Tarifen und allem passiert. Und wie viel hat das ein bisschen einen Twist und Chill auf der globalen Ökonomik? Und dann zweitens, und faszinierend so, was passiert mit der Ökonomie generell? Gehen wir in eine Rezession? Sind die Rates steigend? An welchem Punkt gehen die Rates zurück zu wirklich niedrigen Rates, wie unter Covid? And even if Powell can control short-term rates, he can't really control long-term rates, because that's really based on how many people are willing to buy US Treasuries. And we do face some challenges if we end up in an international trade war of people stepping back from buying US Treasuries, too.
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