Matthew Sussex

He effectively had to get Donald Trump to beg Zelensky not to attack his parade and

So, you know, there is this sense that Russia is on the back foot now.

I think whereas Putin would like to get out of the war, and there are lots and lots of places that the war is now starting to hurt, particularly in the economy...

I'm not sure he necessarily sees an easy way out other than to try and take as much territory as possible.

Oh, look, it absolutely is.

It says, you know, I want a ceasefire so I can hold my parade.

And Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, in fact, trolled him.

which is one of the first times we've seen this happen directly.

And he said, well, all right, we will respect the ability of Russia and we will allow Russia to have its parade.

We will avoid targeting Moscow.

And then he gave the exact coordinates for where Moscow was that, you know, you would program into a drone if you were going to be sending it.

So, yeah, this is the Ukrainians really now thumbing their noses at the Russians.

and push in not really being able to respond with battlefield victories.

Yeah, so, I mean, this is really interesting in that there have been stories circulating for quite a while that Putin is withdrawing into himself, is not going to a number of his official residences, that he keeps a very low profile, doesn't want too many visitors, and increasingly the circle around him is getting smaller and smaller and smaller.

This sense that he is very, very fearful of being taken out by an assassination attempt or by a Ukrainian drone or potentially even by a coup.

Now, I tend to think that it's more of a vibe shift than anything else.

A sort of general sense that the war is just not working and whatever Putin does doesn't make things any better.

that's not necessarily a sort of desire for regime change on behalf of the Russian elites.

So, I mean, I tend to think it will probably take a fair while to play out, but it's certainly signs of, you know, a bit of weakness and Putin's sort of Teflon-coated rule and persona starting to show signs of a bit of wear and tear.

Absolutely right.