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Chapter 1: Why did Putin scale back the Victory Day celebrations?
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It's meant to be the be-all and end-all of military parades. But not this year. Vladimir Putin, fearing an attack, scaled back the Victory Day celebrations in Red Square. So the parade was, in the end, a shadow of its former self.
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Chapter 2: What does this year's subdued Victory Day parade signify?
Today, Russia expert at the ANU, Matt Sussex, on the moment of weakness for the Russian president and why he's becoming increasingly paranoid. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Matt, Victory Day in Moscow's Red Square is usually a lavish military affair. In a normal year, what would we see?
Well, look, this is an event that mobilises Moscow to come out and watch an enormously long parade with troops, with tanks, with self-propelled guns, with lots of missiles on trailers. Putin is there. Last year, for instance, he had Xi Jinping in attendance. On this occasion, though, much more subdued.
Yes, okay, so it's seriously a big deal in Russia's eyes.
Chapter 3: How has Ukraine's military capability changed the dynamics?
But yeah, as you say, this year things changed dramatically. Now that's because, in part of course, Ukraine's military has in 2026 been able to attack deep inside Russia.
Kiev successfully struck a building in downtown Moscow, showing that it has the capability to strike deep inside into Russian territory if it sees the need. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says his military hit two Russian oil tankers near one of its largest Black Sea ports and a cruise missile carrier warship and a patrol boat in the Baltic Sea.
The Ukrainians have now a series of different drone types that can go large distances, as well as their own indigenously made cruise missile called the Flamingo. And that can reach deep into Russian territory. And the Ukrainians have been using these systems to mainly attack Russian oil distribution ports. And it's reckoned that, you know, these are sort of sanctions by other means, I suppose.
given that Donald Trump decided to relax sanctions on Russia in terms of oil after launching the Iran war. But these sanctions and other means have taken about 40% of Russia's oil production capacity, and that's really significant. But what's more significant, of course, is that Russian air defences aren't good enough to make sure that targets are safe from these drones.
And despite pulling an enormous amount of resources into Moscow, there was still no guarantees that if the Ukrainians decided to have a go at the parade, then some drones and missiles wouldn't get through.
Wow. Okay. And because of that, Vladimir Putin, he ordered that this big affair in the Red Square be scaled right back. So what did we actually see instead?
Well, it was seriously abridged. It lasted only 45 minutes. There were no tanks.
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of Putin's increasing paranoia?
There was no sort of mobile military column, which is what typically the Russians have done with, you know, missiles and so forth. There were very few foreign leaders who attended, but he also banned parliament members from attending.
And instead of having a sort of big parade, instead they showed videos of Russian sort of military technologies, which, you know, in itself says, well, we're not safe enough to get these out on the streets, but we got to look at them instead.
Well, Putin, he was still there. He did deliver the main address. And then, really interestingly, afterwards, Matt, he spoke again and he suggested that the war was coming to an end.
They promised assistance and then began fuelling a confrontation with Russia that continues to this day. I think that the matter is coming to an end, but it is a serious matter.
What did you make of those comments?
I think there's a temptation to jump to conclusions here and say that this is Putin signalling that he wants peace. I think Putin does want the war to end, but he still wants it to end on his terms or on terms that are more favourable than he has now. He effectively had to get Donald Trump to beg Zelensky not to attack his parade and
No, no, I asked, and President Putin agreed, President Zelensky agreed, both readily, and we have a little period of time where they're not going to be killing people, and that's very good.
So, you know, there is this sense that Russia is on the back foot now. I think whereas Putin would like to get out of the war, and there are lots and lots of places that the war is now starting to hurt, particularly in the economy... I'm not sure he necessarily sees an easy way out other than to try and take as much territory as possible.
So interestingly, yeah, it was Putin who was actually calling for a ceasefire to be in place when this parade was underway. That's really significant, isn't it?
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Chapter 5: How does Putin's paranoia reflect on his leadership style?
And Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, in fact, trolled him. which is one of the first times we've seen this happen directly. And he said, well, all right, we will respect the ability of Russia and we will allow Russia to have its parade. We will avoid targeting Moscow.
And then he gave the exact coordinates for where Moscow was that, you know, you would program into a drone if you were going to be sending it. So, yeah, this is the Ukrainians really now thumbing their noses at the Russians. and push in not really being able to respond with battlefield victories.
All right, well, Matt, let's have a look more deeply at what all of this means for Vladimir Putin and what it says about his state of mind, his power and, of course, his war. Now, in addition to this major shift in the Victory Day celebration, there have also been these rather interesting reports, Matt, that Vladimir Putin is becoming, well, somewhat paranoid.
That's according to leaks to the press by a European intelligence service. Now, just tell me all about that.
Yeah, so, I mean, this is really interesting in that there have been stories circulating for quite a while that Putin is withdrawing into himself, is not going to a number of his official residences, that he keeps a very low profile, doesn't want too many visitors, and increasingly the circle around him is getting smaller and smaller and smaller.
This sense that he is very, very fearful of being taken out by an assassination attempt or by a Ukrainian drone or potentially even by a coup. Now, I tend to think that it's more of a vibe shift than anything else. A sort of general sense that the war is just not working and whatever Putin does doesn't make things any better.
that's not necessarily a sort of desire for regime change on behalf of the Russian elites. So, I mean, I tend to think it will probably take a fair while to play out, but it's certainly signs of, you know, a bit of weakness and Putin's sort of Teflon-coated rule and persona starting to show signs of a bit of wear and tear.
Yeah, I guess he'd be looking to Iran as well, given the ease at which, I guess, the US took out the Iranian leader.
Absolutely right. And I think, you know, whereas in Iran, that tells us more about, you know, you can achieve operational success, but it doesn't necessarily lead to strategic victory, if you're Vladimir Putin.
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Chapter 6: What are the potential risks of a coup against Putin?
you're actually very, very much aware and worried about your own personal safety because realistically in Russia, it's all about regime security and Putin's security than anything else. So we've had this reporting by, you know, so-called leaks from European intelligence services.
I rather suspect that that was done quite deliberately to keep the pressure up on Putin and sort of create this narrative that he's old, he's out of touch. And he's increasingly weak.
Right. Maybe make him a bit more paranoid then. So you don't think a coup is imminent. But if there was one, who would actually execute that, do you think?
Well, this is why you pause a bit when you read the stories about it. It was supposedly the former defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, who was expressing disquiet and was identified as a potential coup plotter.
Now, there are quite a number of problems with that because, for one thing, Shoigu's power has been significantly curtailed since he lost the defence ministry and the Russian armed forces don't like him anyway. And if you are going to launch a coup in a place like Russia, you really need control over three things. The guns, the jails, and the information.
And Shoigu has control of none of those things. So I think Shoigu perhaps not, but that doesn't mean necessarily that down the track we mightn't see someone decide to try their luck. If you remember a few years ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner, got to within 200 miles of Moscow, all the way from the Ukrainian front.
And something that probably would have upset Putin a lot at that time was that no Russian lay down in front of a Wagner tank to protect Putin. You know, the sense that this war is Putin's war and it's going bad is something that I think really will continue festering.
or who might not be on the cards just yet, but it is clear that Putin is showing some signs of weakness.
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Chapter 7: How is the Russian economy affected by the ongoing conflict?
The war's not going as he had hoped and, of course, perhaps his white knight, Donald Trump, he is not coming to his aid at this point because there's no sign, is there, that Trump can solve this war either.
No, and you almost get the sense that Trump has given up on trying to solve it. I think the trouble is that he shot all his ammunition right at the start by trying to bully the country that was invaded and say, well, you don't have the cards, you must sign up to this critical minerals deal, you must take the Russian... really bad territorial deal because you're losing.
All of that stuff turned out not to be true. And now increasingly, Ukraine does have cards and it seems to have the advantage. And what we've seen is that Trump's ability to exercise influence over Ukraine as a result has completely declined. And the Ukrainians don't take him seriously. They don't take his negotiators seriously. And they view him effectively as a Russian proxy.
What's worse than that is the other way that Trump could put pressure on Ukraine is via Europe. And the Europeans have come to the same conclusion.
And incredibly, Matt, this conflict has now been going for longer than the Soviet Union's fight against Hitler. I mean, and the economy, the Russian economy, it's taking a huge hit.
That's right. The economic damage is really significant in that you have runaway inflation. The reports are around about 6%, 7%. It's probably about double that. Interest rates are up to 23%, I believe. And Russians simply aren't spending any money.
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Chapter 8: Can Putin maintain his power amid growing challenges?
So you have low engagement in the economy. You have stagflation. So the economic situation is getting really dire. And when you put that together with the losses that Russia's had at the front, about 1.4 million casualties, of which at least 400,000 would be dead, that is effectively the next generation of Russians that has been decimated.
One in 25, one in 25 Russians has been killed or wounded by this war.
Wow. MUSIC
All right, well, Matt, Putin is apparently becoming increasingly paranoid. Things are not going as he had hoped. But what are we actually seeing on the ground in Russia? Does he still actually have the support of the Russian people?
Look, I think that when you look at support in Putin's Russia, it's not necessarily the honest opinion of people when they respond to polling questions, when the government has the ability to make your life really difficult. to throw you in jail, to get you sacked from your job, to send your son to the front, then it's best to shut up.
Life is harder, but it's not reached the point, I think, where that would really boil over.
OK, well, we know Vladimir Putin wants to remain president, Matt, until 2036 at least. He's amended the constitution to allow for that. But what do you think? Can he hold on or are we actually seeing the start of his demise?
Oh, I definitely think it's, you know, the beginning of the end for Putin. I wouldn't give him another 10 years. But just how that shakes out is something we're going to have to wait and see. I mean, an orderly power transition would mean Putin saying, OK, this is the person I want to succeed me and I expect everybody to rally around them.
But I think Putin is reticent about doing that because that shows weakness and it shows a desire to go quietly. So ultimately, I think really the only way based on what he's created himself, the only way Putin leaves the Kremlin is one way or another in a box.
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