Merryn Somerset Webb

We're in a constant mini crisis, no one knows quite what's going on, rolling mode, which is totally different.

A state of permanent hubbub, but not necessarily a state of permanent war.

Yes, but that rather suggests that we're on a very, very, very long, super messy off-ramp.

Both sides, kind of no one really wants to keep going.

Iran doesn't really want to get too much more involved with irritating someone who's so unpredictable, so provocative, etc.

And Trump is a bit nervous about taking anything further in case the oil supply problem really does get very severe.

Everyone kind of wants to offer up.

No one wants to agree to everything.

So we are on one, just a slightly abnormal one.

And somehow markets have to work around that.

But if markets are supposed to look to the long term, maybe markets are right about kind of ignoring it all if we are on an elongated long offer up.

No, John, I'm trying to make this podcast more upbeat.

This is very different to how I think we've thought of markets in the past.

We thought of markets as being a predictive machine to a degree.

You know, not everything is priced in always.

Of course it isn't.

That would be a ridiculous idea.

But quite often you'd say, well, you know, market participants are pretty clever and they're pricing a lot of stuff in advance.

And now you're suggesting there's this different environment.

The market is not pricing things in.