Markets in a Permanent Mini-Crisis: Why Investors Are Waiting, Not Predicting
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Welcome to the Merrin Talks Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week and what is driving them. I am Merrin Somerset Webb, Editor-at-Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth.
And I'm John Stevick, Senior Reporter and Author of the Money Distilled Newsletter.
Morning, John.
Morning, man.
Morning, John. I think it's morning. John, I'm not even sure anymore whether this is a truce day or not a truce day.
Well, basically, I just look at what's happening in the market. And the oil price today is up. So it must be a war on day.
It's a war on day, not a war off day. OK. So here is the question then. Is this just where we are now? We're not in an extreme crisis mode when it comes to war, not in a constant let's all bomb each other mode. We're in a constant mini crisis, no one knows quite what's going on, rolling mode, which is totally different.
I suppose that's one way to put it. A state of permanent hubbub.
A state of permanent hubbub, but not necessarily a state of permanent war.
Yeah, I mean, I guess the problem here is that everyone wants an off-ramp, but the two sides can't agree on a satisfactory off-ramp.
Yes, but that rather suggests that we're on a very, very, very long, super messy off-ramp.
Yeah, I think that's a good description. Everyone wants one.
Both sides, kind of no one really wants to keep going. Iran doesn't really want to get too much more involved with irritating someone who's so unpredictable, so provocative, etc. And Trump is a bit nervous about taking anything further in case the oil supply problem really does get very severe. Everyone kind of wants to offer up. No one wants to agree to everything. So we are on one, just a slightly abnormal one. And somehow markets have to work around that. But if markets are supposed to look to the long term, maybe markets are right about kind of ignoring it all if we are on an elongated long offer up.
Honestly, I think that's a little bit too upbeat.
No, John, I'm trying to make this podcast more upbeat.
I don't know, people love a bit of doom and gloom. No, I think that, actually, I was looking at kind of markets this week, so the UK particularly.
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