Merryn Somerset Webb

And so where do those cuts come?

Again, before we get to the but, which, as I say, I'm looking forward to, where would those, in your mind, where would they come?

One of the numbers that I keep looking at in some incredulity is the fact that welfare spending is now the same or slightly higher as the total income tax take.

Now, obviously, when we talk about welfare spending, we're including pensions.

But nonetheless, if you say to a young person today, by the way, every penny, every penny that you pay in income tax

is going in welfare, is going on some kind of benefits.

That hurts.

That hurts.

Well, I mean, the only two places where you find yourself some real money is either the NHS budget or the welfare and pensions budget.

And to be clear, so the welfare and pensions in total is north about a third of a trillion pounds per year.

Yeah.

of which actually the larger part goes on pensions rather than welfare.

Indeed, it's the pensions bit that's been rising more rapidly rather than the welfare bit.

So I would say on the assumption, which is not an unreasonable assumption, that the NHS has some special status,

and indeed giving our health challenges, it'd be hard to take the knife to that anytime soon, I think, then the axe would need to fall if you're finding yourself a decent chunk of change.

I'm talking, you know... Real money.

Tens of billions.

If we're on defence, if we're shy of 2.5% of GDP and need to get, say, to 3.5% of GDP, that's an extra...

1% of GDP, around 30 billion per year.

You're not getting that out of any budget other than NHS or welfare pension.