Andy Haldane on Britain’s Fiscal Squeeze and Growth Problem
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Welcome to Merrin Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I am Merrin Somerset Webb, and this week I am speaking with Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England. Andy, welcome to Merrin Talks Money. Merrin, it's wonderful as ever to be joining you. Well, the UK knocked around a sort of number six in the world in terms of GDP as a whole. Go down to GDP per capita, GDP per head. And we're actually knocking around 26, 27, which I think is something of a shock for most Brits. We're poor. We're not getting any richer. Our economy is a mess. Even our housing market is a mess. I find it quite hard to find those optimistic bones in my body right now.
And, you know, even as we are speaking, we're speaking, by the way, on Tuesday, the 21st, just as I was waiting, Andy, for you to come on, I was having a look at what was going on in the stock market. And I see that Chris Nicholson is down 39% in a matter of minutes on a profit warning. I mean, quite a bad profit warning, but nonetheless, just another example to me of the extraordinary fragility of everything in the UK at the moment. Listen, I'll tell you what, Andy, let's start with some of those miseries. We've got to take this seriously. Let's start with the UK's fiscal situation. We really do have a very major problem there, and it makes it really hard for us to start doing the things that we need to do.
And the classic problem there, of course, is defence. We know we have to spend more money on defence, but we simply don't have the money. The fiscal situation is just too tight. So let's start there. Is there any hope that you can find in the UK's fiscal situation? There's absolutely hope. And I feel you punctured my balloon before I even inserted it there. Sorry. Let's start. Listen, the starting point is not as anyone would wish. Growth is too low. Inflation is too high. And the fiscal position is far too precarious. That is why... When the world sneezes, the UK catches a cold. And this year has been another example of that being the case. We are a high beta leveraged bet on the global economy.
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