Michael Batnick

It is an AI industrial bubble.

I don't think, but in the same way that the fiber optic build-out in the tech bubble was, it's the same thing.

Well, that didn't end well.

But it's that on steroids.

Because the amount of money that we're spending is levels of magnitude bigger than that was.

And we are doing that in anticipation of a completely different world, which the internet didn't turn out to be.

So I don't think there's anything controversial in this idea that more spending is worse than less spending.

Because the spending is guaranteed, the returns are not.

However...

I do think we need to be open-minded to the idea that perhaps data from the last hundred years is not set in stone and permanent forever.

Adam Parker did a piece last week that I have opened up that I haven't had time to read yet.

I'll do it, maybe we'll do this next week.

Adam has a post, a research report, 10 investment mantras that have changed since 2020.

Sometimes things change and they change forever.

Now, this idea of asset light being better

It sounds like it's a permanent type of thing.

That's not like a sick, but I'm open to the idea that maybe it is different this time.

Over the next 10 years, how confident are you that the mega cap tech – and let's just use all of them and throw in the LLMs in there.

How confident are you that those names, including the ones that are now asset-heavy, are going to underperform, say, the S&P 490?

Wait.