Michael Cembalest

Something will have to happen before then. You know, and there's any number of things that could happen. But that's the big picture issue. There's not enough non-defense discretionary spending to cut. In fairness to Doge, there wasn't enough for them to cut in the places they were cutting. You're right.

And we already had the Budget Control Act of 2011, which cut non-defense discretionary spending. So, you know, if... As this crossover point that I'm mentioning gets closer in the early 2030s, the United States is going to have some very difficult decisions to make about taxation, entitlement spending.

And we already had the Budget Control Act of 2011, which cut non-defense discretionary spending. So, you know, if... As this crossover point that I'm mentioning gets closer in the early 2030s, the United States is going to have some very difficult decisions to make about taxation, entitlement spending.

And we already had the Budget Control Act of 2011, which cut non-defense discretionary spending. So, you know, if... As this crossover point that I'm mentioning gets closer in the early 2030s, the United States is going to have some very difficult decisions to make about taxation, entitlement spending.

And I mean, if you want, I can give you three or four things that will probably have to happen between now and then from a policy perspective that some people would find jolting. The first one of which is they're going to have to test the means test Medicare. So wealthy people are just not going to get the same Medicare benefits despite the fact they paid into the system.

And I mean, if you want, I can give you three or four things that will probably have to happen between now and then from a policy perspective that some people would find jolting. The first one of which is they're going to have to test the means test Medicare. So wealthy people are just not going to get the same Medicare benefits despite the fact they paid into the system.

And I mean, if you want, I can give you three or four things that will probably have to happen between now and then from a policy perspective that some people would find jolting. The first one of which is they're going to have to test the means test Medicare. So wealthy people are just not going to get the same Medicare benefits despite the fact they paid into the system.

It's going to have to get means tested just like Social Security does. They're probably going to have to do something funny to the payroll tax. Right now, the payroll tax only applies up to, what is it, $125,000, $130,000. They would probably have an exemption. They call it a donut hole until, let's say, $300,000 or $400,000 in adjusted gross income.

It's going to have to get means tested just like Social Security does. They're probably going to have to do something funny to the payroll tax. Right now, the payroll tax only applies up to, what is it, $125,000, $130,000. They would probably have an exemption. They call it a donut hole until, let's say, $300,000 or $400,000 in adjusted gross income.

It's going to have to get means tested just like Social Security does. They're probably going to have to do something funny to the payroll tax. Right now, the payroll tax only applies up to, what is it, $125,000, $130,000. They would probably have an exemption. They call it a donut hole until, let's say, $300,000 or $400,000 in adjusted gross income.

But then from then to affinity, reapply the payroll tax, right? They'll probably have to be a federal tax on municipal bonds based on your income. Right. So these are all things that have shown up in. Simpson-Bowles proposals, the committee, there's something called the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget. They constantly put these things out. So all of the widgets that will have to happen.

But then from then to affinity, reapply the payroll tax, right? They'll probably have to be a federal tax on municipal bonds based on your income. Right. So these are all things that have shown up in. Simpson-Bowles proposals, the committee, there's something called the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget. They constantly put these things out. So all of the widgets that will have to happen.

But then from then to affinity, reapply the payroll tax, right? They'll probably have to be a federal tax on municipal bonds based on your income. Right. So these are all things that have shown up in. Simpson-Bowles proposals, the committee, there's something called the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget. They constantly put these things out. So all of the widgets that will have to happen.

are kind of known, but they're politically unpopular. Grover Norquist is going to throw a fit. But those are some of the things that are going to have to happen in order to avoid that crossover point from hitting. And it will probably be catalyzed by, Scott, as you mentioned, a continued decline in Abu Dhabi and Japan, like continued decline, gradual, in foreign ownership.

are kind of known, but they're politically unpopular. Grover Norquist is going to throw a fit. But those are some of the things that are going to have to happen in order to avoid that crossover point from hitting. And it will probably be catalyzed by, Scott, as you mentioned, a continued decline in Abu Dhabi and Japan, like continued decline, gradual, in foreign ownership.

are kind of known, but they're politically unpopular. Grover Norquist is going to throw a fit. But those are some of the things that are going to have to happen in order to avoid that crossover point from hitting. And it will probably be catalyzed by, Scott, as you mentioned, a continued decline in Abu Dhabi and Japan, like continued decline, gradual, in foreign ownership.

of treasuries and agency bonds combined with, at some point, the rating agencies downgrading the United States and saying, we're going to give the country a year or two to right the ship, otherwise we'll downgrade it. For reasons I don't think I have to go into, I don't think the rating agencies would take that decision under the current administration.

of treasuries and agency bonds combined with, at some point, the rating agencies downgrading the United States and saying, we're going to give the country a year or two to right the ship, otherwise we'll downgrade it. For reasons I don't think I have to go into, I don't think the rating agencies would take that decision under the current administration.

of treasuries and agency bonds combined with, at some point, the rating agencies downgrading the United States and saying, we're going to give the country a year or two to right the ship, otherwise we'll downgrade it. For reasons I don't think I have to go into, I don't think the rating agencies would take that decision under the current administration.

It concerns me for a number of reasons. First of all, it's terrible for society. It's led to massive increased political polarization to the point where the country can't get things done. The percentage of moderates in the House and the Senate are at the lowest levels in over 100 years. And for that reason, some of the stuff that you talked about The CHIPS bill was supposed to help.