Michael Cembalest

But, yeah, you're no longer, for the reasons that Scott mentioned, you're no longer compensated to set it and forget it in a U.S.-only portfolio.

But, yeah, you're no longer, for the reasons that Scott mentioned, you're no longer compensated to set it and forget it in a U.S.-only portfolio.

But, yeah, you're no longer, for the reasons that Scott mentioned, you're no longer compensated to set it and forget it in a U.S.-only portfolio.

On paper, yes. First, China has been gradually and slowly dialing down their exposure to both treasury and agency paper and as a percentage of outstanding debt are at a much lower rate than they used to be. As it relates to Japan specifically, they are still very much under the U.S. military and nuclear umbrella. And this is just my own personal opinion.

On paper, yes. First, China has been gradually and slowly dialing down their exposure to both treasury and agency paper and as a percentage of outstanding debt are at a much lower rate than they used to be. As it relates to Japan specifically, they are still very much under the U.S. military and nuclear umbrella. And this is just my own personal opinion.

On paper, yes. First, China has been gradually and slowly dialing down their exposure to both treasury and agency paper and as a percentage of outstanding debt are at a much lower rate than they used to be. As it relates to Japan specifically, they are still very much under the U.S. military and nuclear umbrella. And this is just my own personal opinion.

They would be very reluctant to jeopardize that. by participating in some kind of capital war against the United States. They still live in a pretty dangerous part of the world. And while the U.S. is clearly signaling a period of isolationism, at least over the next three and a half years, my view is that the ties between the U.S. and Japan are too deep for that kind of thing right now.

They would be very reluctant to jeopardize that. by participating in some kind of capital war against the United States. They still live in a pretty dangerous part of the world. And while the U.S. is clearly signaling a period of isolationism, at least over the next three and a half years, my view is that the ties between the U.S. and Japan are too deep for that kind of thing right now.

They would be very reluctant to jeopardize that. by participating in some kind of capital war against the United States. They still live in a pretty dangerous part of the world. And while the U.S. is clearly signaling a period of isolationism, at least over the next three and a half years, my view is that the ties between the U.S. and Japan are too deep for that kind of thing right now.

One thing that didn't change it was Doge. Instead of $2 trillion and $1 trillion. I had this top 10 list that I put together at the start of the year of things that I thought might happen. And one of them was $150 billion in Doge savings in 2026, which almost looks spot on their claimed amount. And...

One thing that didn't change it was Doge. Instead of $2 trillion and $1 trillion. I had this top 10 list that I put together at the start of the year of things that I thought might happen. And one of them was $150 billion in Doge savings in 2026, which almost looks spot on their claimed amount. And...

One thing that didn't change it was Doge. Instead of $2 trillion and $1 trillion. I had this top 10 list that I put together at the start of the year of things that I thought might happen. And one of them was $150 billion in Doge savings in 2026, which almost looks spot on their claimed amount. And...

Plenty of right-wing people from the Cato Institute to the Manhattan Institute are saying those numbers are going to be very difficult to actually hit. And there's lots of double counting and nonsense in there. Oh, wow. So it won't be Doge's issue. The big issue for investors is this. By the early 2030s, 100% of U.S.

Plenty of right-wing people from the Cato Institute to the Manhattan Institute are saying those numbers are going to be very difficult to actually hit. And there's lots of double counting and nonsense in there. Oh, wow. So it won't be Doge's issue. The big issue for investors is this. By the early 2030s, 100% of U.S.

Plenty of right-wing people from the Cato Institute to the Manhattan Institute are saying those numbers are going to be very difficult to actually hit. And there's lots of double counting and nonsense in there. Oh, wow. So it won't be Doge's issue. The big issue for investors is this. By the early 2030s, 100% of U.S.

tax revenue, as it's now collected, will be needed to pay interest on the debt and entitlements. So it's like a household that makes money but only enough for rent and food but nothing for kind of clothes, transportation, or other things that you need. That's obviously an unsustainable environment. A country can't survive if 100% of revenues are dedicated to just interest entitlements.

tax revenue, as it's now collected, will be needed to pay interest on the debt and entitlements. So it's like a household that makes money but only enough for rent and food but nothing for kind of clothes, transportation, or other things that you need. That's obviously an unsustainable environment. A country can't survive if 100% of revenues are dedicated to just interest entitlements.

tax revenue, as it's now collected, will be needed to pay interest on the debt and entitlements. So it's like a household that makes money but only enough for rent and food but nothing for kind of clothes, transportation, or other things that you need. That's obviously an unsustainable environment. A country can't survive if 100% of revenues are dedicated to just interest entitlements.

Something will have to happen before then. You know, and there's any number of things that could happen. But that's the big picture issue. There's not enough non-defense discretionary spending to cut. In fairness to Doge, there wasn't enough for them to cut in the places they were cutting. You're right.

Something will have to happen before then. You know, and there's any number of things that could happen. But that's the big picture issue. There's not enough non-defense discretionary spending to cut. In fairness to Doge, there wasn't enough for them to cut in the places they were cutting. You're right.