Michael Cembalest

But a rapid 20% correction over a short period of time tends to flush out a lot of the weak hands and reset the market for better fundamentals. And, you know, I still don't know if that's going to happen this time. I think the market rally has been too fast here and is underappreciating the hard data decline that's going to be taking place when it rolls through in May and June. But...

But a rapid 20% correction over a short period of time tends to flush out a lot of the weak hands and reset the market for better fundamentals. And, you know, I still don't know if that's going to happen this time. I think the market rally has been too fast here and is underappreciating the hard data decline that's going to be taking place when it rolls through in May and June. But...

If volatility is going to be as high as we think it's going to be, as a personal investor, you kind of have to take advantage of some of those moments to average into your long term goals. That's number one. Number two, something that other countries have figured out better is that 3% contributions to qualified savings plans is too small a number, right?

If volatility is going to be as high as we think it's going to be, as a personal investor, you kind of have to take advantage of some of those moments to average into your long term goals. That's number one. Number two, something that other countries have figured out better is that 3% contributions to qualified savings plans is too small a number, right?

If volatility is going to be as high as we think it's going to be, as a personal investor, you kind of have to take advantage of some of those moments to average into your long term goals. That's number one. Number two, something that other countries have figured out better is that 3% contributions to qualified savings plans is too small a number, right?

The average company in the United States only sequesters 3% of your pre-tax income to go into savings plans. In other countries, it's six to eight. And so I always tell, I don't speak to young people a lot, but when I do, I tell them that they should be substantially increasing their annual contributions to pre-tax plans because the equity returns of the future may not match the ones of the past.

The average company in the United States only sequesters 3% of your pre-tax income to go into savings plans. In other countries, it's six to eight. And so I always tell, I don't speak to young people a lot, but when I do, I tell them that they should be substantially increasing their annual contributions to pre-tax plans because the equity returns of the future may not match the ones of the past.

The average company in the United States only sequesters 3% of your pre-tax income to go into savings plans. In other countries, it's six to eight. And so I always tell, I don't speak to young people a lot, but when I do, I tell them that they should be substantially increasing their annual contributions to pre-tax plans because the equity returns of the future may not match the ones of the past.

And despite 15 years of US equity outperformance, at this point, you're being compensated to not have just a US only portfolio for the reasons that we discussed earlier.

And despite 15 years of US equity outperformance, at this point, you're being compensated to not have just a US only portfolio for the reasons that we discussed earlier.

And despite 15 years of US equity outperformance, at this point, you're being compensated to not have just a US only portfolio for the reasons that we discussed earlier.

We anticipated some of this. I had an outlook for this year that was called the alchemists of a guy that was doing all sorts of weird experiments. And I actually said, prepare for a 10% to 15% decline. I think they're going to break something. And so then when it happened, we were prepared to kind of take advantage of some of those dislocations. But yes, coming into this year,

We anticipated some of this. I had an outlook for this year that was called the alchemists of a guy that was doing all sorts of weird experiments. And I actually said, prepare for a 10% to 15% decline. I think they're going to break something. And so then when it happened, we were prepared to kind of take advantage of some of those dislocations. But yes, coming into this year,

We anticipated some of this. I had an outlook for this year that was called the alchemists of a guy that was doing all sorts of weird experiments. And I actually said, prepare for a 10% to 15% decline. I think they're going to break something. And so then when it happened, we were prepared to kind of take advantage of some of those dislocations. But yes, coming into this year,

we were running at close to maximum US weights versus the rest of the world. I wouldn't say that our end game is a portfolio that is regionally weighted according to some kind of normal global weighting, right? I think we'll still end up overweight the U.S. versus the rest of the markets, but not nearly as much as we had been.

we were running at close to maximum US weights versus the rest of the world. I wouldn't say that our end game is a portfolio that is regionally weighted according to some kind of normal global weighting, right? I think we'll still end up overweight the U.S. versus the rest of the markets, but not nearly as much as we had been.

we were running at close to maximum US weights versus the rest of the world. I wouldn't say that our end game is a portfolio that is regionally weighted according to some kind of normal global weighting, right? I think we'll still end up overweight the U.S. versus the rest of the markets, but not nearly as much as we had been.

I mean, the fundamentals of what's going on in machine learning and artificial intelligence are still pretty powerful trends. Microsoft's earnings reports kind of blew the door off companies What they're doing with AI, the other companies don't break it out, unfortunately, as much as we would like. But there are still some powerful drivers of profitability there.

I mean, the fundamentals of what's going on in machine learning and artificial intelligence are still pretty powerful trends. Microsoft's earnings reports kind of blew the door off companies What they're doing with AI, the other companies don't break it out, unfortunately, as much as we would like. But there are still some powerful drivers of profitability there.

I mean, the fundamentals of what's going on in machine learning and artificial intelligence are still pretty powerful trends. Microsoft's earnings reports kind of blew the door off companies What they're doing with AI, the other companies don't break it out, unfortunately, as much as we would like. But there are still some powerful drivers of profitability there.