Michael Cembalest

In every position, you know, whether it's medicine or science or sports investing or whatever it is, it's gotten super jargonified. So for young people, you have to be prepared to converse in the language of the day. And I remember I used to read Barron's, and when I started, I didn't understand 80% of it. But...

In every position, you know, whether it's medicine or science or sports investing or whatever it is, it's gotten super jargonified. So for young people, you have to be prepared to converse in the language of the day. And I remember I used to read Barron's, and when I started, I didn't understand 80% of it. But...

In every position, you know, whether it's medicine or science or sports investing or whatever it is, it's gotten super jargonified. So for young people, you have to be prepared to converse in the language of the day. And I remember I used to read Barron's, and when I started, I didn't understand 80% of it. But...

I took a highlighter, I highlighted all the stuff I didn't understand, I put it in a folder, and I waited until I had a chance to ask somebody that would explain it to me. And you have to have the discipline to do that. You can't be... You can't want to go into a field and not understand what people are saying or let things kind of pass over your head and you'll get to it later.

I took a highlighter, I highlighted all the stuff I didn't understand, I put it in a folder, and I waited until I had a chance to ask somebody that would explain it to me. And you have to have the discipline to do that. You can't be... You can't want to go into a field and not understand what people are saying or let things kind of pass over your head and you'll get to it later.

I took a highlighter, I highlighted all the stuff I didn't understand, I put it in a folder, and I waited until I had a chance to ask somebody that would explain it to me. And you have to have the discipline to do that. You can't be... You can't want to go into a field and not understand what people are saying or let things kind of pass over your head and you'll get to it later.

You have to have the discipline to understand what that person is saying. And the interesting part is a bunch of the times, once you learn about it, you'll realize that guy was wrong and he was saying something that didn't make any sense. But if I could make just one more observation. Because, Scott, I've listened to lots of your podcasts and TED Talks and different things.

You have to have the discipline to understand what that person is saying. And the interesting part is a bunch of the times, once you learn about it, you'll realize that guy was wrong and he was saying something that didn't make any sense. But if I could make just one more observation. Because, Scott, I've listened to lots of your podcasts and TED Talks and different things.

You have to have the discipline to understand what that person is saying. And the interesting part is a bunch of the times, once you learn about it, you'll realize that guy was wrong and he was saying something that didn't make any sense. But if I could make just one more observation. Because, Scott, I've listened to lots of your podcasts and TED Talks and different things.

By the way, my wife is a huge groupie of yours.

By the way, my wife is a huge groupie of yours.

By the way, my wife is a huge groupie of yours.

Something happened to the psyche of investors because I've been doing this long enough to have seen it. The Great Depression was this kind of distant thing like the Civil War or, you know, the fall of the Roman Empire. And then all of a sudden, within one 10-year period, we had two 40% declines in the equity market, something that hadn't happened since the Great Depression.

Something happened to the psyche of investors because I've been doing this long enough to have seen it. The Great Depression was this kind of distant thing like the Civil War or, you know, the fall of the Roman Empire. And then all of a sudden, within one 10-year period, we had two 40% declines in the equity market, something that hadn't happened since the Great Depression.

Something happened to the psyche of investors because I've been doing this long enough to have seen it. The Great Depression was this kind of distant thing like the Civil War or, you know, the fall of the Roman Empire. And then all of a sudden, within one 10-year period, we had two 40% declines in the equity market, something that hadn't happened since the Great Depression.

The first one, 2001, 2002, and then 2009 when we hit like 666, the mark of the devil, in March of 2009. Because that happened and because so many of the fundamental drivers, particularly of the second one, were obscured and not understood until after the fact, investors ever since have lived with this sense of, is the next one the big one? I live on a seismic fault.

The first one, 2001, 2002, and then 2009 when we hit like 666, the mark of the devil, in March of 2009. Because that happened and because so many of the fundamental drivers, particularly of the second one, were obscured and not understood until after the fact, investors ever since have lived with this sense of, is the next one the big one? I live on a seismic fault.

The first one, 2001, 2002, and then 2009 when we hit like 666, the mark of the devil, in March of 2009. Because that happened and because so many of the fundamental drivers, particularly of the second one, were obscured and not understood until after the fact, investors ever since have lived with this sense of, is the next one the big one? I live on a seismic fault.

And I think that's one of the mistakes that some of the Armageddonists make is having lived through that experience, they can't shed that. the notion that I have to prepare for another 40% decline in the equity market. Whereas the kind of standard recession is more kind of a 12 to 20% decline, both in equity markets and in earnings. So that's part of what happened, I think, to the...

And I think that's one of the mistakes that some of the Armageddonists make is having lived through that experience, they can't shed that. the notion that I have to prepare for another 40% decline in the equity market. Whereas the kind of standard recession is more kind of a 12 to 20% decline, both in equity markets and in earnings. So that's part of what happened, I think, to the...