Michael Cembalest

And I think that's one of the mistakes that some of the Armageddonists make is having lived through that experience, they can't shed that. the notion that I have to prepare for another 40% decline in the equity market. Whereas the kind of standard recession is more kind of a 12 to 20% decline, both in equity markets and in earnings. So that's part of what happened, I think, to the...

to the fundamental psyche of the country after experiencing that. And as the person in charge of our investment strategy in a three and a half to $4 trillion business, I have to make sure that we don't let that kind of psyche affect us as we're going through these different business cycles. And one of the most important charts that I show everybody is in almost every single business cycle,

to the fundamental psyche of the country after experiencing that. And as the person in charge of our investment strategy in a three and a half to $4 trillion business, I have to make sure that we don't let that kind of psyche affect us as we're going through these different business cycles. And one of the most important charts that I show everybody is in almost every single business cycle,

to the fundamental psyche of the country after experiencing that. And as the person in charge of our investment strategy in a three and a half to $4 trillion business, I have to make sure that we don't let that kind of psyche affect us as we're going through these different business cycles. And one of the most important charts that I show everybody is in almost every single business cycle,

Equity markets bottom first, then GDP, then industrial production, then payrolls, then high-yield delinquencies, then the housing markets. And so almost by definition, we have to be taking risk at times when everything else looks terrible. But that's because all of those other things tend to bottom after the equity markets do.

Equity markets bottom first, then GDP, then industrial production, then payrolls, then high-yield delinquencies, then the housing markets. And so almost by definition, we have to be taking risk at times when everything else looks terrible. But that's because all of those other things tend to bottom after the equity markets do.

Equity markets bottom first, then GDP, then industrial production, then payrolls, then high-yield delinquencies, then the housing markets. And so almost by definition, we have to be taking risk at times when everything else looks terrible. But that's because all of those other things tend to bottom after the equity markets do.

So that's just another fundamental axiom of investing that I think it's important for people to understand.

So that's just another fundamental axiom of investing that I think it's important for people to understand.

So that's just another fundamental axiom of investing that I think it's important for people to understand.

Yes, on both. I remember in around 2016, I added up all of the money spent on the Iraq war. And it was about $2.5 trillion. And I made all these charts of the things that you could have done with $2.5 trillion instead. You know, pre-K, universal pre-K, free college tuition, all that kind of stuff.

Yes, on both. I remember in around 2016, I added up all of the money spent on the Iraq war. And it was about $2.5 trillion. And I made all these charts of the things that you could have done with $2.5 trillion instead. You know, pre-K, universal pre-K, free college tuition, all that kind of stuff.

Yes, on both. I remember in around 2016, I added up all of the money spent on the Iraq war. And it was about $2.5 trillion. And I made all these charts of the things that you could have done with $2.5 trillion instead. You know, pre-K, universal pre-K, free college tuition, all that kind of stuff.

Yes, high-speed rail. And you could have wasted a bunch of it, too. So, yes, absolutely. The world's a pretty resilient place. And so I guess I'm a little more optimistic than you that if this administration is forced by economic and market conditions to modify course, that eventually the way the global economy and markets function, there'll be some normalization. So...

Yes, high-speed rail. And you could have wasted a bunch of it, too. So, yes, absolutely. The world's a pretty resilient place. And so I guess I'm a little more optimistic than you that if this administration is forced by economic and market conditions to modify course, that eventually the way the global economy and markets function, there'll be some normalization. So...

Yes, high-speed rail. And you could have wasted a bunch of it, too. So, yes, absolutely. The world's a pretty resilient place. And so I guess I'm a little more optimistic than you that if this administration is forced by economic and market conditions to modify course, that eventually the way the global economy and markets function, there'll be some normalization. So...

And also, remember, there's some subset of people that are elated about what's going on. And so when I talk to some of our clients, I'll say, whether you're elated or despondent about what's going on, let me give you a couple of things. In 1954, Eisenhower deported a million people on a much smaller population, a million people.

And also, remember, there's some subset of people that are elated about what's going on. And so when I talk to some of our clients, I'll say, whether you're elated or despondent about what's going on, let me give you a couple of things. In 1954, Eisenhower deported a million people on a much smaller population, a million people.

And also, remember, there's some subset of people that are elated about what's going on. And so when I talk to some of our clients, I'll say, whether you're elated or despondent about what's going on, let me give you a couple of things. In 1954, Eisenhower deported a million people on a much smaller population, a million people.

And it turned out to be a disaster, contributed to a terrible recession in 56, 57. And two years later, the deportations were 80,000. So the public support and congressional support for the program evaporated. In the late 1800s, Trump talks about McKinley a lot, loves McKinley. The McKinley tariffs were put in place.