Michael Cembalest

We're trying to figure out what happens in a world where there's a gargantuan, whether it's 50% or 100%, doesn't matter. You have a gargantuan reciprocal tariff rate on China, 10% on a lot of other countries, plus various product-specific tariffs they haven't even announced yet. Are people going to stop importing?

We're trying to figure out what happens in a world where there's a gargantuan, whether it's 50% or 100%, doesn't matter. You have a gargantuan reciprocal tariff rate on China, 10% on a lot of other countries, plus various product-specific tariffs they haven't even announced yet. Are people going to stop importing?

Are people going to route Chinese goods through other intermediaries and repackage them? Are people going to find a way to get, you know, less workable goods but from places with lower tariffs? I meet with CEOs all the time. They're in the middle of trying to figure it out. But there's... Right now, we're in one of those things that happens where the hard data still looks good, right?

Are people going to route Chinese goods through other intermediaries and repackage them? Are people going to find a way to get, you know, less workable goods but from places with lower tariffs? I meet with CEOs all the time. They're in the middle of trying to figure it out. But there's... Right now, we're in one of those things that happens where the hard data still looks good, right?

Are people going to route Chinese goods through other intermediaries and repackage them? Are people going to find a way to get, you know, less workable goods but from places with lower tariffs? I meet with CEOs all the time. They're in the middle of trying to figure it out. But there's... Right now, we're in one of those things that happens where the hard data still looks good, right?

If you looked at the weekly Dallas Fed Economic Index of economic conditions and stuff like that, logistics index, retail sales, all that stuff looks normal. But the forward-looking indicators are crashing. And normally, the average amount of time it takes for those two things to reconverge, either with the surveys going up or the hard data coming down, is about 60 to 90 days.

If you looked at the weekly Dallas Fed Economic Index of economic conditions and stuff like that, logistics index, retail sales, all that stuff looks normal. But the forward-looking indicators are crashing. And normally, the average amount of time it takes for those two things to reconverge, either with the surveys going up or the hard data coming down, is about 60 to 90 days.

If you looked at the weekly Dallas Fed Economic Index of economic conditions and stuff like that, logistics index, retail sales, all that stuff looks normal. But the forward-looking indicators are crashing. And normally, the average amount of time it takes for those two things to reconverge, either with the surveys going up or the hard data coming down, is about 60 to 90 days.

So I think they've got about 60 to 90 days to refocus the market's energy on some of their supply side strategies. But I just – I can't really tell what the priorities are right at the same time that we should have been talking about less tariffs. The president announced 100 percent movie tariff.

So I think they've got about 60 to 90 days to refocus the market's energy on some of their supply side strategies. But I just – I can't really tell what the priorities are right at the same time that we should have been talking about less tariffs. The president announced 100 percent movie tariff.

So I think they've got about 60 to 90 days to refocus the market's energy on some of their supply side strategies. But I just – I can't really tell what the priorities are right at the same time that we should have been talking about less tariffs. The president announced 100 percent movie tariff.

And even though it's a digital good and not a physical one, when there's a will, there's a way, right? You could apply 100% tariffs on the point of transaction between U.S. media companies when they're paying for that foreign content. So it's not large enough to move the needle on the whole economy, but it's a signal that they're still going in a lot of different directions at the same time.

And even though it's a digital good and not a physical one, when there's a will, there's a way, right? You could apply 100% tariffs on the point of transaction between U.S. media companies when they're paying for that foreign content. So it's not large enough to move the needle on the whole economy, but it's a signal that they're still going in a lot of different directions at the same time.

And even though it's a digital good and not a physical one, when there's a will, there's a way, right? You could apply 100% tariffs on the point of transaction between U.S. media companies when they're paying for that foreign content. So it's not large enough to move the needle on the whole economy, but it's a signal that they're still going in a lot of different directions at the same time.

Bits and pieces of it, yeah. You no longer have... The stagflation environment in the 1970s was aided and abetted... Sorry, let's just get a quick, quick explainer.

Bits and pieces of it, yeah. You no longer have... The stagflation environment in the 1970s was aided and abetted... Sorry, let's just get a quick, quick explainer.

Bits and pieces of it, yeah. You no longer have... The stagflation environment in the 1970s was aided and abetted... Sorry, let's just get a quick, quick explainer.

Weak growth and inflation happening at the same time, right? Which people until then didn't think could happen because it felt like a bird flying in two directions at once. But it split itself in half and it did. So... You know, it was exacerbated at the time by Nixon had 100 days of wage and price controls because of the OPEC oil embargo. You had a highly unionized workforce.

Weak growth and inflation happening at the same time, right? Which people until then didn't think could happen because it felt like a bird flying in two directions at once. But it split itself in half and it did. So... You know, it was exacerbated at the time by Nixon had 100 days of wage and price controls because of the OPEC oil embargo. You had a highly unionized workforce.

Weak growth and inflation happening at the same time, right? Which people until then didn't think could happen because it felt like a bird flying in two directions at once. But it split itself in half and it did. So... You know, it was exacerbated at the time by Nixon had 100 days of wage and price controls because of the OPEC oil embargo. You had a highly unionized workforce.