Michael Cembalest

So every time there was an increase in prices, it turned around and got recycled at the increased wages. Some of those things don't exist. U.S. oil and gas and natural gas liquid production is at an all-time high. And so you don't have some of those same mechanisms. Right. But one of the mystifying things is the administration continues to maintain that foreign entities pay for tariffs, okay?

So every time there was an increase in prices, it turned around and got recycled at the increased wages. Some of those things don't exist. U.S. oil and gas and natural gas liquid production is at an all-time high. And so you don't have some of those same mechanisms. Right. But one of the mystifying things is the administration continues to maintain that foreign entities pay for tariffs, okay?

So every time there was an increase in prices, it turned around and got recycled at the increased wages. Some of those things don't exist. U.S. oil and gas and natural gas liquid production is at an all-time high. And so you don't have some of those same mechanisms. Right. But one of the mystifying things is the administration continues to maintain that foreign entities pay for tariffs, okay?

So two things about that. Number one, in 2018, during the first leg of all this, there were tariffs on appliances, steel, and washing machines and stuff, and furniture. In none of those cases did foreign exporters absorb the cost. Their import prices were unchanged, which means that some combination of U.S. importers through profits and margins or consumers through prices paid for them.

So two things about that. Number one, in 2018, during the first leg of all this, there were tariffs on appliances, steel, and washing machines and stuff, and furniture. In none of those cases did foreign exporters absorb the cost. Their import prices were unchanged, which means that some combination of U.S. importers through profits and margins or consumers through prices paid for them.

So two things about that. Number one, in 2018, during the first leg of all this, there were tariffs on appliances, steel, and washing machines and stuff, and furniture. In none of those cases did foreign exporters absorb the cost. Their import prices were unchanged, which means that some combination of U.S. importers through profits and margins or consumers through prices paid for them.

So far, year to date, We have this thing called a Trump tracker, which is online, and it's got all sorts of charts on growth and shipping and employment and inflation and stuff like that. On one of the first pages, we have this table, which is what's happening to the FOB prices, which are the import prices into the U.S. before any customs or tariffs or anything like that.

So far, year to date, We have this thing called a Trump tracker, which is online, and it's got all sorts of charts on growth and shipping and employment and inflation and stuff like that. On one of the first pages, we have this table, which is what's happening to the FOB prices, which are the import prices into the U.S. before any customs or tariffs or anything like that.

So far, year to date, We have this thing called a Trump tracker, which is online, and it's got all sorts of charts on growth and shipping and employment and inflation and stuff like that. On one of the first pages, we have this table, which is what's happening to the FOB prices, which are the import prices into the U.S. before any customs or tariffs or anything like that.

If the administration's thesis is correct, those prices would be dropping because that would be foreign exporters wanting to maintain market share in the face of tariffs. They have not changed. They are unchanged. So if you put a 20% or 30% tariff on something and its FOB price doesn't change, that's an indication that the U.S.

If the administration's thesis is correct, those prices would be dropping because that would be foreign exporters wanting to maintain market share in the face of tariffs. They have not changed. They are unchanged. So if you put a 20% or 30% tariff on something and its FOB price doesn't change, that's an indication that the U.S.

If the administration's thesis is correct, those prices would be dropping because that would be foreign exporters wanting to maintain market share in the face of tariffs. They have not changed. They are unchanged. So if you put a 20% or 30% tariff on something and its FOB price doesn't change, that's an indication that the U.S.

is going to pay for it either through margins or through consumer prices. And you kind of saw this. If this wasn't the case, the administration would not have reacted as hyperbolically as it did to this Amazon issue about them disclosing explicit tariff prices on imported goods from China.

is going to pay for it either through margins or through consumer prices. And you kind of saw this. If this wasn't the case, the administration would not have reacted as hyperbolically as it did to this Amazon issue about them disclosing explicit tariff prices on imported goods from China.

is going to pay for it either through margins or through consumer prices. And you kind of saw this. If this wasn't the case, the administration would not have reacted as hyperbolically as it did to this Amazon issue about them disclosing explicit tariff prices on imported goods from China.

I mean, if the underlying fundamentals were playing out the way that they thought they would, they wouldn't need to get so upset about that.

I mean, if the underlying fundamentals were playing out the way that they thought they would, they wouldn't need to get so upset about that.

I mean, if the underlying fundamentals were playing out the way that they thought they would, they wouldn't need to get so upset about that.

I think after 100—I mean, it's only 100 days we're talking about. Anything is possible, right? The United States has a services surplus. And again, this is something Jamie's talked about publicly. One of the risks of all the tariff stuff is that other countries— retaliate against US services surplus because there's not that much non-agricultural goods exports that they can retaliate against.

I think after 100—I mean, it's only 100 days we're talking about. Anything is possible, right? The United States has a services surplus. And again, this is something Jamie's talked about publicly. One of the risks of all the tariff stuff is that other countries— retaliate against US services surplus because there's not that much non-agricultural goods exports that they can retaliate against.