Michael Nadeau

We think we're...

you know, in some type of a bubble framework here.

We don't know, you know, it's hard to say, but the markets are kind of complacent at this stage, so.

Yeah, you know, you had the extreme concentration, you know, at the top, which we showed, you know, 40% or so for the leaders.

And that started to break down.

So that's one thing to keep an eye on is the concentration.

We talked about how only four of the seven MAG-7 have gotten back to all-time highs on this latest rally.

So that rhymes a little bit with what we were seeing yesterday.

Lots of dispersion, right?

There was tons of dispersion when you got into the frothy zone where things are up a lot.

Also, things are falling a lot.

We've seen this disruption with a lot of the SaaS stocks out there.

You had a restrictive Fed back then.

The Fed was actually hiking rates into what seemed like a kind of overheating economy at the time.

So they started hiking like mid-1999 or so.

So the Fed was not, like, you know, loose.

They were hiking into this.

And, you know, when you hear people talk about what it was like to invest at the time, like, there was – I don't think there was some, like –

catalyst that caused the prices to just kind of start to not go up anymore they just kind of stopped going up and then eventually once you got into like march 2000 um there was there was like some concern around a recession in japan um there was a microsoft was dealing with an anti-trust lawsuit i think that started to shift the the markets like the narrative in the market at the time um and it kind of just it just broke the risk on you know kind of sentiment out there i think

And NASDAQ ended up dropping about 78% from March of 2000 through October of 2002.