Michael Nadeau

Retail call options have been exploding.

We recently hit 9 million contracts on a five-day average.

At the peak of 21, we were about 6 million contracts, and we've gone up three times.

Yeah, because it's, you know, retail calls versus puts are, so calls, people going long are 2x calls versus puts.

So it's telling me that like retail, since, you know, we hit those lows in late March and we started to reverse, like there's been a very reflexive move in terms of retail getting back into the market.

And then sort of like just a mechanical thing where hedges come off.

Transaction volumes are lower.

There's been some other technical stuff with like CTAs and just mechanical buying that has to happen.

And that's happening in like kind of a low volume environment.

And so I think this has played into this big move that we've seen of late.

And, you know, like we were talking about earlier, like this could be it.

It could maybe we just sort of kind of calm down for a little bit and then we have another, you know, big move.

impossible to predict it'll seem obvious you know in hindsight you know but but i think this is something to keep an eye on just like this is the positioning in the market right now this next chart just shows you know the vix has has come off so you know we had a big rally um

Hedges have come off, and it looks like markets are becoming a little more complacent.

Again, they were not very complacent back in March.

We're getting a little bit more complacent.

And then we can look at credit spreads as another way to just look at access to capital, right, for businesses out there.

It's pretty easy to get a loan.

So markets look complacent.

We just had a 25% move.