Michael Nadeau

That was the period that ETH did really well.

And then Bitcoin ultimately got up to about 125K or so.

And the reason I started to get nervous was just that the amount of leverage that we were seeing built in the market.

And at the same time, you're developing what I view as a little lopsided market structure.

We have all this new money that came in over the last year.

You have long-term holders and sort of like...

OG investors that have been in Bitcoin for up to a decade, they are degrossing, they are exiting the market at the same time that you have sort of this, what I would call more of like a weaker handed market structure at the top with all the leverage.

And then you had all these narratives that I was kind of starting to disagree with.

You know, just this idea that Trump is just going to pump the market.

There's a new Fed chair coming in and which we can get into in this episode.

I think there's a lot to discuss there.

But I think a lot of the narratives I was having trouble aligning with those narratives.

And then when you look at the lopsided market structure and sort of a reduction in demand right from the bottom up to buy Bitcoin, you know, that was kind of what made us go risk off at that time.

You know, looking back now, that looks like it was it was the right call.

Um, after we made, you know, after we sort of went to risk, risk off, the next question is, okay, where are we going?

How do we get there?

You know, we've been targeting a fair value of Bitcoin at around 65 K and, you know, over the weekend we got down to 75 K or so within four months, um, of that call, you know, bear markets and Bitcoin have typically, um,

you know, lasted up to a year or so.

So we're about four months in.

And now we are in sort of what I think is potentially a new regime with this new Fed president or new Fed chair that's going to be coming in.