Michael Nadeau
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
We're very close to where we peaked back in 99, which was right over 44.
We are well north of where we were back in 1929.
And we also
We're at 42.
So we're well past that.
I mean, people were pulling this chart up also back in 21, where we had a big rally and we got to about just under 40 back in 21.
So we're clearly like just from a very high level, like we're clearly at these like very elevator levels, just from very high level.
Oh, my God.
Yeah, it's the PE ratio of the S&P 500 based on averaging out the last 10 years and adjusting for inflation.
It's tough.
I mean, this is the big question.
We've obviously seen a lot of disruption within the technology sector as AI stocks have outperformed.
We've seen SaaS stocks, there's bear markets happening at the same time, which is sort of interesting.
But from a broad perspective, we're clearly in sort of what you might categorize as a bubble territory.
I think so.
Yes.
I think that's correct.
Yes.
And that also means that if stocks are not cheap, then your forward returns are not great.
If you buy stocks when the PE is over 20 or so, there's a lot of evidence to suggest that your 10-year returns aren't going to be that great from those levels.