Michelle Evermore

Initial claims doesn't measure how many people are unemployed.

It measures how many people are unemployed and are able to get an unemployment benefit.

At the Fed press conference yesterday, Kevin Warsh forced us to read between the lines a bit.

The markets took that to mean a rate hike is coming.

But Randy Kroszner thinks markets got it wrong.

And he has a pretty good understanding of how the new Fed chair thinks.

The two worked at the Fed together a couple decades ago.

Traditionally, markets react to what the Fed says.

data on inflation and the job market.

The question is, and just stick with me here for a second, if the Fed encourages markets to interpret the data, will the markets really just interpret the data?

Or will they instead make guesses about how the Fed is quietly interpreting the data?

Alan Blinder, a former vice chairman at the Fed, says the distinction matters.

If you can't tell, Blinder is a pro-Fed transparency guy.

Crazy directions can result in pretty painful market corrections.

Blinder thinks we'll see one rate hike in the coming months.

So does Carola Binder, an economist at UT Austin.

But she says the markets could price in more.

And a series of rate hikes would have the biggest effect on longer-term loans, like the 30-year fixed mortgage.

I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.