Mike Baker

officials now suggest the true number may be far higher than initially reported and more than the regime in Tehran is willing to admit.

And yes, that is quite the statement of the obvious.

While early figures place the death toll in the low thousands, American officials say assessments from international organizations point to numbers that could reach as high as 18,000.

The administration has framed its pressure on Tehran, both military and economic, as a response to that violence.

President Trump has publicly argued that U.S.

warnings have already had an effect, pointing to reports that Iran backed away from plans to carry out mass executions after Washington signaled possible consequence

responses.

Still, major questions remain about what military action could realistically achieve.

Former military officials and analysts caution that air power, just air power, while overwhelming, does not guarantee regime collapse.

A sustained campaign would likely require weeks or months of operations and could invite significant Iranian retaliation across the region, from missile strikes to attacks by proxy forces targeting U.S.

personnel and allies.

That tension between the desire for decisive results and the realities of military power, well, is now at the center of the administration's debate.

President Trump has long argued that his success should be measured by, quote, the wars we never get into.

Yet he's also sent conflicting signals about Iran's leadership, at times expressing skepticism about regime alternatives,

and at other moments, calling openly for new leadership in Tehran.

Now, anyone familiar with the White House comments during the past year regarding Putin's war in Ukraine will recognize this pattern of conflicting statements.

Trump is consistent with his mixed messaging.

For now, no strike order has been given, but the buildup continues, the options are being refined, and the president is clearly keeping the door open.

If you're interested, by the way, in what a first strike against Iran might actually look like, may I suggest, here I'm suggesting, you dial up last week's PDB Situation Report, that's our extended weekend show, where I spoke with former Air Force fighter pilot Ryan Bodenheimer, and he's better known as Max Afterburner.

Now, we talked about how a U.S.