Mike Baker

But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

In theory, the Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be open again, but in reality, well, that has yet to happen.

Just hours after agreeing to reopen the strait, Iran moved to block oil tankers again, blaming Israeli strikes in Lebanon, because apparently they're under the impression that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire deal.

Iranian officials are now warning that any ship attempting to pass without permission could be destroyed.

Well, that doesn't sound very ceasefire-ish.

After more than a month of fighting, Tehran initially agreed to allow vessels through the critical waterway as part of a two-week ceasefire with the U.S.

And the markets, well, they liked what they heard.

Oil prices dropped sharply on the news, with Brent Crude pulling back as traders bet that supply disruptions might soon ease.

But here's the problem.

The ships aren't moving.

So far, there's been no meaningful surge in traffic through the strait.

Just a handful of vessels that have made the passage since the ceasefire took effect.

No long queues forming, no rush of tankers trying to break through.

In fact, most major shipping companies are still holding back, waiting to see whether this reopening does, in fact, happen.

This isn't like moving a few traffic cones to reopen a highway.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most tightly controlled and strategically sensitive choke points in the world.

And right now, Iran is still firmly in charge of who gets through and how.

Under the current arrangement, vessels are expected to coordinate with Iranian military forces before transiting.

That alone is enough to give many operators pause.

But it doesn't stop there.