Mike Baker

We're now seeing reports from the Financial Times that Iran wants to impose tolls on ships passing through the strait, about $1 per barrel.

Now, that may not sound like much, but for a large crewed tanker carrying roughly 2 million barrels, well, you can do the math.

Payments, according to the report, would be required in crypto, allowing Tehran to sidestep sanctions while maintaining tight control over who gets through and on what terms.

And if ships don't comply, well, routing officials have made it clear those vessels could be targeted.

So while Washington is talking about, quote, safe passage, the reality is something closer to conditional access, controlled, of course, by Tehran.

It's why shipping companies aren't rushing back in.

And there's also a logistics problem here.

Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through the strait every single day.

Now, analysts estimate that maybe 10 to 15 vessels can make the transit daily under the current system.

Meanwhile, hundreds of ships are sitting on either side of the choke point, waiting for clarity, what one executive described as a floating, quote, car park.

Even in a best-case scenario, it could take weeks, if not months, to work through that backlog.

And then there's the real gatekeeper in all of this, the insurance industry.

Shipping doesn't move unless it's insured.

And right now, insurers are looking at a region where mines have been laid, ships have been attacked, and the ceasefire itself is fragile at best.

Premiums are high, coverage is limited, and in some cases, simply unavailable.

If the strait does actually reopen in a meaningful way, well, the reality is that all it would take is one incident, a harassment, a drone strike, a mine strike, and confidence collapses all over again.

That's the risk calculation that companies are making, and it's happening against a backdrop of a situation that remains unstable at best.

Even as this ceasefire takes hold, Iran is still issuing threats about controlling access to the Strait.

And there are reports of continued attacks in the region, including missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure in Gulf states.

And Israel, for its part...