Mike Carruthers

I'd rather hear a prediction from someone with a track record of making accurate predictions than to just be flying blind.

It also seems that the prediction, how the prediction is made makes a big difference.

If it's just my opinion, that's one thing.

If there's some data to support the prediction, that's something else entirely.

Well, certainly most predictions, it would seem, a lot of them are based on the past, that what is likely to happen in the future is probably what's happened in the past or some variation of that, but that the basis for the prediction is what has happened before.

Understanding what you're saying about predictions and the dangers of them, what would be better, though?

I mean, it seems like it's an inexact science at best, but there's nothing better, right?

History is full of people who made predictions, and a lot of the predictions in the past have been way off.

They haven't even been based on anything.

They've just been somebody's opinion or somebody's wild fantasies.

Do you think that people learn from that?

It seems...

I mean, there are people who make predictions who are often wrong, but, you know, the media keeps going back to them and asking for their prediction again and again and again.

And they're often wrong and wrong and wrong, but they're an expert.

So people keep asking their prediction.

Well, then it makes you wonder, what's the point?

I mean, I remember studying in school about people that this very thing, that there are so many experts that make predictions, are dead wrong, their prediction never happens, and yet it doesn't tarnish their image.

They're still an expert.

Well, how can you be an expert

and predict things and be wrong and still be an expert.