Mike Israetel

It's been worth it to them. And most importantly, they did what they really wanted. Up until recently, that has become at least to me and many futurists apparent that some of us listening to this, probably most people listening to this may never die. Up until recently, that was not apparent. And you kind of had to figure out like, how do I want to live my life?

And some cases require a longevity slash quality of life trade-off. And I made that early. Would I have made it the same again? On the margins, probably would have been safer. But also, there's a lot of crazy shit that they do in bodybuilding that I just never did categorically or tried once and was like, fuck that, that's not for me.

And some cases require a longevity slash quality of life trade-off. And I made that early. Would I have made it the same again? On the margins, probably would have been safer. But also, there's a lot of crazy shit that they do in bodybuilding that I just never did categorically or tried once and was like, fuck that, that's not for me.

And my blood work and everything was pretty good the entire time. So I feel okay about it. Not great, but okay. I don't know if that makes any sense.

And my blood work and everything was pretty good the entire time. So I feel okay about it. Not great, but okay. I don't know if that makes any sense.

Almost everything. If you're conservative, 60% to 70% accuracy, which is wild because the baseline accuracy is zero. If you're not conservative and you give them a little leeway- This was when.

Almost everything. If you're conservative, 60% to 70% accuracy, which is wild because the baseline accuracy is zero. If you're not conservative and you give them a little leeway- This was when.

Throughout the 80s and 90s, he was able to predict a substantial amount of correct predictions all the way through the 2020s. And he was almost the only person to predict the arrival of artificial general intelligence as, interestingly enough, specifically the year 2029. And now there is a debate of he was probably too conservative and AGI will be here by 2027.

Throughout the 80s and 90s, he was able to predict a substantial amount of correct predictions all the way through the 2020s. And he was almost the only person to predict the arrival of artificial general intelligence as, interestingly enough, specifically the year 2029. And now there is a debate of he was probably too conservative and AGI will be here by 2027.

In the early 2000s, they did a lot of asking questions of AI experts, people working in the space. And almost all of them said Ray was an insane person. And about half of them said we could never actually create artificial general intelligence. The other ones were like, oh, in 2100 or 2070, every five years that you ask this, everyone trends closer and closer to Ray Kurzweil's original prediction.

In the early 2000s, they did a lot of asking questions of AI experts, people working in the space. And almost all of them said Ray was an insane person. And about half of them said we could never actually create artificial general intelligence. The other ones were like, oh, in 2100 or 2070, every five years that you ask this, everyone trends closer and closer to Ray Kurzweil's original prediction.

He's not doing magic. So early, you said something kind of interesting about You said we start at 250,000 years ago, then we go into 125, then 50, then so on. As you said, things get faster. Progress happens exponentially quicker. But if you plot every single event on human and animal history and geological history, it all plots on the same logarithmic scale. Very, very tight clustering.

He's not doing magic. So early, you said something kind of interesting about You said we start at 250,000 years ago, then we go into 125, then 50, then so on. As you said, things get faster. Progress happens exponentially quicker. But if you plot every single event on human and animal history and geological history, it all plots on the same logarithmic scale. Very, very tight clustering.

And right around 2045, the line's fucking vertical. And so when I make predictions, which are not mine, I'm just parroting what other smarter people have said, of possibly getting traction on almost every kind of disease in the 2030s, this isn't the wishful thinking of a child, though mentally I'm below the average child. At least in my own heart.

And right around 2045, the line's fucking vertical. And so when I make predictions, which are not mine, I'm just parroting what other smarter people have said, of possibly getting traction on almost every kind of disease in the 2030s, this isn't the wishful thinking of a child, though mentally I'm below the average child. At least in my own heart.

This is something that is inevitable based on our incremental understanding and manipulation of the world. It is the most accurate type of prediction that you could make, bereft of exact knowledge, because it's the thing that tracks on that exponential progression. If we're pessimistic about it, we're actually estimating that things will somehow progress substantially less than they have been.

This is something that is inevitable based on our incremental understanding and manipulation of the world. It is the most accurate type of prediction that you could make, bereft of exact knowledge, because it's the thing that tracks on that exponential progression. If we're pessimistic about it, we're actually estimating that things will somehow progress substantially less than they have been.

computing power is an easy one. That curve of computing power in the early 2020s, people were like, that's it, Moore's Law is dead. But then AI picked up the pace and it's outpacing Moore's Law like crazy, exactly on the trajectory that Ray Kurzweil was the first one, probably the best to formalize.

computing power is an easy one. That curve of computing power in the early 2020s, people were like, that's it, Moore's Law is dead. But then AI picked up the pace and it's outpacing Moore's Law like crazy, exactly on the trajectory that Ray Kurzweil was the first one, probably the best to formalize.

So when I'm saying crazy shit like we're going to kibosh aging, we're going to kibosh disease and all this other stuff, it's tantamount to someone in the 1930s peak depression era days to hear that in the 2020s, you can make $16 an hour working at McDonald's. And that in the United States, the poorest people are the fattest. They'd be like, you're out of your fucking mind.