Mike Israetel

So when I'm saying crazy shit like we're going to kibosh aging, we're going to kibosh disease and all this other stuff, it's tantamount to someone in the 1930s peak depression era days to hear that in the 2020s, you can make $16 an hour working at McDonald's. And that in the United States, the poorest people are the fattest. They'd be like, you're out of your fucking mind.

And you're like, no, no, no, it's totally true. I'm in the future. It's totally true. So what do you do for a living? Can you imagine describing to a person in 1930s what you do for a living? They're like, well, social media and they're like, what's that? You're like, oh God, how do we even put this to you? And we're still working in the same physical world. We're really the same humans.

And you're like, no, no, no, it's totally true. I'm in the future. It's totally true. So what do you do for a living? Can you imagine describing to a person in 1930s what you do for a living? They're like, well, social media and they're like, what's that? You're like, oh God, how do we even put this to you? And we're still working in the same physical world. We're really the same humans.

But anytime we think, oh geez, there's no way it's going to get this good, all disease eradicated. And hold on a second. When's the last time you've treated a patient with cholera? Do we have cholera in the modern Western world anymore?

But anytime we think, oh geez, there's no way it's going to get this good, all disease eradicated. And hold on a second. When's the last time you've treated a patient with cholera? Do we have cholera in the modern Western world anymore?

I could be wrong about all this, by the way.

I could be wrong about all this, by the way.

Yeah, hell yeah.

Yeah, hell yeah.

Because Google's DeepMind project just mastered protein folding last year. And this earlier this year, it took the first open contracts with major pharmaceutical companies.

Because Google's DeepMind project just mastered protein folding last year. And this earlier this year, it took the first open contracts with major pharmaceutical companies.

Through industrially designed enzymes, which we do not have the brainpower to design, but for which, I'll put this as well as I can, for which in the 2030s, AI will be comically overpowered for. Because we think we're very complex, and by our own standards, we're insanely complex.

Through industrially designed enzymes, which we do not have the brainpower to design, but for which, I'll put this as well as I can, for which in the 2030s, AI will be comically overpowered for. Because we think we're very complex, and by our own standards, we're insanely complex.

But AI is so much smarter than us already in many of the relevant ways and soon to be smarter than us to a degree that most of us have difficulty conceptualizing. Just a quick analogy. Imagine explaining to your dog why the only season inside of your house is a light summer day. Peter doesn't know what seasons are. Its total communicative throughput involves gestures and emotions.

But AI is so much smarter than us already in many of the relevant ways and soon to be smarter than us to a degree that most of us have difficulty conceptualizing. Just a quick analogy. Imagine explaining to your dog why the only season inside of your house is a light summer day. Peter doesn't know what seasons are. Its total communicative throughput involves gestures and emotions.

It knows its name, it knows sit, it knows a few other things. You can't do it. It's impossible. AI, as predicted by these very simple equations which have never steered us wrong of how smart it's going to be in 10 years, in 10 years, will be like probably several orders of magnitude smarter than us than we are than dogs. So, it sounds like wishful thinking and hope.

It knows its name, it knows sit, it knows a few other things. You can't do it. It's impossible. AI, as predicted by these very simple equations which have never steered us wrong of how smart it's going to be in 10 years, in 10 years, will be like probably several orders of magnitude smarter than us than we are than dogs. So, it sounds like wishful thinking and hope.

No doubt many of the comments in this will be like, this guy's an idiot lunatic. Fair play.

No doubt many of the comments in this will be like, this guy's an idiot lunatic. Fair play.

Sure, sure. The solutions to the problems that we're seeking... to systems that intelligent, should they choose to solve them, can be, for lack of a better term, pedestrian in nature. And they're going to be dealing with problems that are much more complex than the reengineering of human biology.