Mike Wilson

recession and we're into a new bull market now so so but i mean you know i mean markets like to challenge uh authorities uh you know monetary policy etc and you know they're not happy they'll they'll make the they'll make that they'll make them know uh and and then and then they'll get what they want you know but right now it seems like we've got a decent balancing act that's going on

Yeah, I mean, you know, we try to work six months in the future.

I think, you know, a year ago, I think, remember, we had this conversation after the election.

You were saying, Mike, you sound more optimistic than I've heard you in a while.

And it was kind of, we were thinking six months in advance.

We thought the first half would be tough as they transitioned from the kind of growth negative policies to these growth positive policies.

All this CapEx you're talking about

is right in line with the big, beautiful bill.

I mean, they're trying to basically reduce consumption, increase investment.

It's a totally different economy.

And what that is, it's a higher velocity economy for all the companies that haven't been doing well for the last, I would say, three years who've been sort of in a recession.

I would argue strongly, we've done the work on this, and we've done the analysis with respect to the rolling recession that has been in place for, I would say, three years, most of the private economy kind of suffering, government kind of carrying the water.

And then we basically saw all of that come to fruition at the end in April.

April, capitulation day, as I call it, was basically the government recession.

That was the final piece of the rolling recession.

And if you actually look at the challenger job cuts and you look at the revision data now on the payroll data, it looks to me like a rate of change low in payrolls and a rate of change high in challenger job cuts came in April.

So the market's figured all this out.

That's why revision breadth has gone straight up.

So rolling recovery.

Where are we in those stages?