Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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This is Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Nathan Hager with Karen Moscow as we get ready for the first trading day in which the federal government will be open in 43 days. We're joined by Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Really great to have you with us on this first day after the government shut down, Mike. Now that it's over, now what? Good morning.
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Chapter 2: What insights does Mike Wilson provide about the recent government shutdown?
We'll leave it at that. We're actually working on our year ahead piece that will come out at the end of next week.
Okay. Is the need for interest rate cuts there for the market, or can the market continue to rally higher even if its expectations aren't met in terms of monetary policy?
Well, I don't think the market's necessarily in trouble if they don't exceed expectations. But I do think the broadening story requires the Fed to get ahead of the curve, as I'd like to say. And I measure... kind of the Fed in market terms, are they ahead or behind the curve by looking at the two-year Treasury yield.
So right now, the Fed funds is still about 40, 50 basis points above the two-year Treasury yield. And I would like to see the Fed get below that level. And then you'll see that broadening out. But, you know, the economy is not in bad shape at this point. I think the worst of the economy, you know, sort of slowdown is behind us. And that was, you know, we priced all that in April.
We've written about this. That was the end of this rolling trend.
recession and we're into a new bull market now so so but i mean you know i mean markets like to challenge uh authorities uh you know monetary policy etc and you know they're not happy they'll they'll make the they'll make that they'll make them know uh and and then and then they'll get what they want you know but right now it seems like we've got a decent balancing act that's going on
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Chapter 3: How does the government shutdown impact market performance?
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