Mike Wilson

Good morning, Nathan.

Yeah.

Well, I think most people probably won't feel the effects.

I'm sure the government employees are happy to get back to work.

And, look, I think from our standpoint, from a market standpoint, I mean, the longer that this kind of lagged into the holidays, it definitely became a risk factor from both a growth standpoint and also from a financial liquidity standpoint.

So, you know, I think there is a bit of a sigh of relief.

You know, the markets have traded better into this now that it's behind us.

But, you know, let's be honest.

I mean, I don't think they've really solved some of the main issues.

So this is one that could pop up again as early as January.

So, you know, we'll keep an eye on it, but I think we averted the worst of it.

Well, it's just more of the same, which is there is this tension, and we've written about this, that we think there is this tension between the market's expectation and what the Fed is doing.

And part of that does relate to the data itself.

I would say that the issue with the data is twofold.

Number one, we may not get it, and so this is a further delay, which will delay the Fed's ability to cut rates maybe as much as the market wants.

And also...

I've made the case, and I think other people have too, that these data are very lagging and they're not as accurate as they had been pre-COVID.

Since COVID, some of these data, the collection of themselves has been a little bit erratic and a little less reliable in that regard.

So

We do have a little bit of a data problem with or without the shutdown, and I think this all stems back from COVID, and I think this is making the Fed's job harder.