Mike Wilson
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With respect to the Fed independence, I mean, I have probably had a bit different view here.
I mean, as far as I can tell, I mean, the Fed independence has been sort of fading for the better part of 20 years, really, since the financial crisis.
And when I say independent, I don't mean they're under the thumb of the White House.
What I mean is that they have to play ball in terms of their role to help the government fund itself.
Thanks, Lisa.
Well, I would say it's just a changing, it's an evolving narrative we've had, which is that we think that the policy is still misunderstood, right?
That they essentially came in this year, did the growth negative stuff first, and now we're looking at the growth positive stuff.
I'm not worried about the economy.
What I am a little bit worried about is that the Fed
is kind of dragging its feet.
So I would agree with Neil's comment, like the Fed needs to cut, but not to save the economy, but to see the full rotation into these lagging parts of the market, the interest rate sensitive parts of the market, which is really our story for 2028 or 2026.
We think the 7800 is dependent on the earnings cycle broadening out.
Yeah, I mean, I think our view has been differentiated that we think we have had a recession.
We went through a rolling recession in the private economy.
So I would agree with Niels that the economy is weak, but it's rebalancing now towards the private economy.
I mean, many parts of the economy have been suffering, housing,
All the interest rates, durable goods, consumer goods, which have been under pressure, commodity sectors, transportation.
There's been no volume going through the economy, no velocity in the real economy.
And the way that the administration is changing the policy, in addition to the Fed now cutting hopefully next year, you'll see the private economy now doing much better, the government no longer crowding out these areas that have been under pressure.
But we do need to get that trend.