Mike Wilson

I've made the case, and I think other people have too, that these data are very lagging and they're not as accurate as they had been pre-COVID.

Since COVID, some of these data, the collection of themselves has been a little bit erratic and a little less reliable in that regard.

So

We do have a little bit of a data problem with or without the shutdown, and I think this all stems back from COVID, and I think this is making the Fed's job harder.

Well, I think it's five to six now over the next year.

But still, that's more than what the market's anticipating right now.

The market's anticipating about three, three-and-a-half cuts between now and the end of next year.

So, I mean, look, I think the issue – it's not an issue, but I think one of the concerns that the market has had, one of the reasons why it's been narrow, is that the market –

kind of wants more Fed cuts.

In order to get the private economy really moving, we do need kind of that base rate a bit lower, and that's why we've kind of stayed at the quality curve and why the market performance has been quite narrow.

So, look, I think because of the effects of COVID, kind of the boom-bust on inflation itself, the Fed is probably going a little bit slower than they would normally, which I don't think is necessarily the wrong decision.

But there is that tension, as I mentioned before, between the market and how fast the Fed is moving.

Yeah, we think so.

I mean, we've kind of held back on trying to make the kind of small cap, mid cap broadening call.

But now we think we're getting closer to that moment.

where we do think we're going to see broader performance in 2026, mainly because the earning story now is improving.

As we've been saying for quite a while, a good chunk of the private economy has been in a recession for many years.

And we think that's now emerging from that.

Some of that's due to some of the policy changes.

And quite frankly, they're just pent up demand.