Mohammad Ali Shabani

They can continue doing that.

But having forces on the ground puts them at great vulnerability, a lot of political risk, and direct confrontation with the United States.

So that gives them- Muhammad, you're assuming they think rationally.

So Iran, I think the way it approaches things like sanctions relief is that it will rely heavily on waivers, on presidential waivers.

That's the way they look at things.

Ultimately, they understand that Congress is going to be

Difficult and then that prior to November Trump can push things through but after November is going to be Much more difficult and we're seeing one layer to that in the reactions to this MOU by the Democrats

who have opposed this war.

But now that there's an actual cessation of hostilities, now that there's actual document to find a way out of this conflict, they're among the loudest voices who are opposed to this document, you know, screaming that Trump is handing over X and Y, et cetera.

So that's kind of giving us a sense of congressional action is going to be difficult.

The sooner you get it done, the better.

But first and foremost is reliance on presidential waivers to kind of get a lot of the sanctions relief through.

But I think zooming out further,

The number one calculation I think on the part of Iran is if we manage to get a deal that is implemented, that's a win.

If we don't manage to get a deal because of subterfuge or what have you on the part of the United States, that's also a win because we've managed to make clear to our own people that we're not the problem here.

In case there is a resumption of hostilities, then they're going to basically be able to count on popular support.

that they wouldn't if it became quite clear that they're not being rational, they don't want to negotiate a solution to do all of this, etc.

So I think the way they're approaching sanctions relief is it's a win-win.

If we get it, we win.

If we don't get it because of U.S.