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Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

6/18/26: Trump 180 On Iran, Ben Shapiro Attacks Vance, Deep State Fights Iran MOU

18 Jun 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 24.98

This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Joy is essential and it's also elusive. But now there's a new and exciting way to start your journey toward a more joyful existence. Joy 101. It's a new podcast hosted by me, Hoda Kotb. If you're craving inspiration to maximize your joy, tune into these candid, uplifting, and moving on-air chats.

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25 - 56.675

Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Joy 101, and listen now. Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb is presented by CVS. From daily news to dating fails, conspiracy theories to cooking with celebrities who can't actually cook, Amazon Music's got the most ad-free top podcasts ready to entertain, included with Prime. I've been hearing for decades that the markets can solve climate change.

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57.076 - 79.768

Today, we have more incentives for market solutions than ever, and emissions are rising. On this season of Drilled, Carbon Cowboys, the story of three market solutions colliding in one multinational boondoggle. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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82.668 - 97.186 Krystal Ball

Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

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97.306 - 118.053 Krystal Ball

So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at BreakingPoints.com. Good morning, everybody. Happy Thursday.

118.093 - 134.055 Krystal Ball

Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Indeed we do. The MLU with Iran has been signed in Versailles, and Trump gave a wild press conference that we want to spend some time with. Said some very, very interesting things. That is part of why

134.035 - 150.357 Krystal Ball

We are in day whatever, I don't know, at this point of the complete Zio meltdown, but they have decided to train their ire on one man. That man is not Donald Trump. It is J.D. Vance. So that is an interesting political dynamic that we want to dig into. We're also really excited to be joined by the editor of Amwaj Media. They have had

150.337 - 165.358 Krystal Ball

a number of really significant scoops over the course of the Iran war. And so we're going to dig into the details of this memo of understanding what it says, what it doesn't say, what it means in terms of the possibilities of war and peace going forward. So very much looking forward to that.

165.338 - 186.047 Krystal Ball

Trump's new Fed chair has been part of the decision to keep rates the same in a significant announcement yesterday. Of course, Trump has been agitating aggressively for rates to be cut, so we'll see what he had to say on the matter. And the membership list of Peter Thiel's secret society has been leaked, as well as an eye-brazing, eyebrow-raising, eye-brazing. Eye-brazing.

Chapter 2: What are the implications of Trump's 180 on Iran?

507.552 - 524.363 Krystal Ball

Absolutely. Smart. True. Yeah. Accurate. What, you're going to let everybody else in the room? You're going to let Israel have whatever they want from our stockpiles, but you're not going to let Iran have any missile, as he said? In other words, Iran has a right to defend itself. Right. That's that's what does Iran have a right to.

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524.523 - 544.077 Krystal Ball

Does Iran have a right to Iran has a right to this and a right to defend itself. Right. Yeah, he's right. You know, I mean, part of this just belies the basic fact. Yes. When you lose a war, there are two things that have to happen. Number one, you don't get everything that you want. And two, you have to pay them. a lot of reparations. This is Lindy. It's a tale as old as time.

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544.378 - 545.579 Krystal Ball

You don't conquer the place.

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Chapter 3: How did Ben Shapiro criticize J.D. Vance?

545.86 - 568.148 Krystal Ball

Thus, you've got to take some gold out of the treasury and haul it on over and sign a memorandum. And if that doesn't hold, then you go back to war. This is what happens, people. Sorry. I mean, the about face in 100 days is kind of what's shocking about it. But at a basic level, yeah, it's true. But that's why by uttering these truths for the first time, look, from Trump, he can reverse it.

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568.128 - 578.421 Krystal Ball

you know, at any point. He could say something different today. Right, he could say something different today. But there is power in the truth. And there is power in what we have been trying to emphasize here for quite some time.

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578.661 - 602.129 Krystal Ball

How is it that you can allow Israel, a rogue state, to have a secret nuclear weapons program, to have missiles, to bomb seven of its neighbors, to conquer and annex parts of Syria, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Gaza, and then in a straight face say, You're not allowed to have any even civilian nuclear enrichment. You're not allowed to have any ballistic missile threat. You cannot do that.

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602.269 - 617.364 Krystal Ball

Or you can. You have to take over the entire country, right? And so that's why by saying, yes, they have a right to defend itself. And sure, oh, civilian nuclear, we can't say that. And they're like, oh, but you're going to pay them. It's like, yeah, we have to pay them. Otherwise, they're going to continue to keep the straight performance.

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617.404 - 626.534 Krystal Ball

And even paying, as Trump soon addresses, is not even really paying them. We're paying them with their own money, like Obama did, the so-called. Yeah. pallets of cash.

626.614 - 626.894 Carlos Prieto

Go ahead.

627.015 - 642.521 Krystal Ball

Let me just react to what you just said because I think you made an important point about the power of truth and the power of reality. And I think that that has overwhelmed the propaganda efforts, which were very minimal, by the way, for this war and pretty pathetic and poorly organized and changing day by day.

643.022 - 660.51 Krystal Ball

But the ability of the American people to see through some of that propaganda has really overwhelmed this war effort. And American foreign policy is increasingly built on propaganda and lies, whether it's things like, oh, Israel is the most moral army on the planet and there are great allies and it's really great for our interests.

660.57 - 681.361 Krystal Ball

Eventually, especially, I mean, in part because of social media, because you have a much more diverse media ecosystem, you know, you're not able to just keep people in the mainstream press where these propaganda efforts are, you know, come with very few holes in them or very cohesive. since you have that access, people are just not buying this fantasy world.

Chapter 4: What does the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran entail?

860.102 - 883.031 Krystal Ball

Of course, it's preposterous. And so the fantasy world has become so divorced from reality that people did not buy it. They have access to information they didn't used to have. And now you have an American president who is acknowledging things that, you know, and again, this can change in a moment, but who is acknowledging obvious facts. logical things that many Americans intuited.

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883.371 - 894.982 Krystal Ball

And it is hard to put that understanding back in the bottle. Absolutely. Yeah. Same with Iraq. I mean, oh, we were greeted as liberators. We're going to bring them democracy. We all lived through that. We all knew this is bullshit from day one.

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895.002 - 904.872 Krystal Ball

It's only the same people who push the war are the very same people who are parroting those truths, which is ironic because in most cases, that's the exact same people who are defending and who were pushing it.

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905.56 - 919.405

Hey, I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb. Together, we're going to have meaningful conversations with the world's most fascinating people, like when actress Olivia Munn shared how she overcame fierce health challenges.

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919.465 - 928.682 Krystal Ball

I've gone through breast cancer and then helped my mother through breast cancer, and that was more difficult. There's a lot of people who understand postpartum depression. I was not prepared for postpartum anxiety.

928.662 - 935.449

Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

936.61 - 942.977 Carlos Prieto

This is Michael Rapoport, and my podcast, the I Am Rapoport Stereo Podcast, is unlike anyone you've ever heard.

943.378 - 954.99 Krystal Ball

We're a variety show, and if you're looking for strong opinions, funny opinions about sports, entertainment, politics, pop culture, and whatever else catches my attention, then subscribe now.

955.207 - 975.871 Carlos Prieto

This kid, Jafar Jackson, is as good as Rami Malek, as Freddie Mercury, and it's as good as Timothee Chalamet as... Bob Dylan, and I say that with love and respect for both of those actors. And I don't know how many Oscar nominations they give out. I don't know if it's five, six for best actor.

Chapter 5: How does the deep state influence U.S. foreign policy towards Iran?

1409.966 - 1421.056 Krystal Ball

Between the power of geography and then their ability to export this amount of oil, not to mention, look, they have, as the neocons always said, there's a lot of intellectual capital that's locked up in Iran.

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1421.096 - 1441.628 Krystal Ball

If they have the ability over the next 25 years to operate as a normal nation, there is no reason that they will not become massively more economically and strategically important to the world. And just to show the power of their bargaining chip, finally, You know, everybody, the number one chirp that annoys me is people say, you said oil was going to hit 200.

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1441.668 - 1447.484 Krystal Ball

I'm like, sorry, I didn't foresee that China would cut 40% of all of its imports for the first time ever in human history.

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1447.504 - 1447.965 Carlos Prieto

Thank you, China.

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1447.985 - 1465.005 Krystal Ball

I apologize. Thank you, China. You should be thanking China. You should be happy I was wrong. And you should thank China for having better EVs and for a shit ton more oil reserve than we do. But we also kept pointing to one thing, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And we're like, hey, all these oil executives say another month or two or this is going to be a real problem.

1465.265 - 1475.836 Krystal Ball

And what did everybody say? Oh, you're wrong. It's not happening. Look at the delusional traders on Wall Street. Well, same. Power in the truth. Here's Trump saying we had four weeks until every Strategic Petroleum Reserve ran dry.

Chapter 6: What are the reactions to the Iran deal from Israeli media?

1476.076 - 1476.917 Krystal Ball

Let's take a listen.

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1477.117 - 1487.008 Sean Gentile

Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks. You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out. And there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it. And you want to see Bedlam?

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1487.242 - 1509.874 Krystal Ball

Bedlam. Bedlam. That's what we're headed towards. Again, you know, Chevron CEO, all Rory. I want to really these people deserve credit. They were not incorrect. Yeah. All they did not foresee was China having one of the world's largest strategic petroleum reserves and massively cutting their energy imports, which I will just say nobody literally could have foreseen that except for the CCP.

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1509.854 - 1527.9 Krystal Ball

China had continued to import oil. The current estimate is oil would have been over $150 to $170 a barrel. Now, here, whenever it comes to the Strategic Reserve, they have access to these because the data is all out there. We can all see, oh, you know, lowest level since 1998. Next week, the lowest level since 1984. We're like, well, there's not that much oil there.

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1528 - 1540.037 Krystal Ball

And then when they do, we know how much that we produce on a daily basis. We have no slack in the system. We know what direction that's going to go. Same here from Trump. we would have run out of oil and it would have been bedlam.

1540.077 - 1564.492 Krystal Ball

So the basic reality is that Iran's strategy was correct and that fundamentally the weapon of the Strait of Hormuz will remain for all time a part of the Iranian playbook. And it should be from their perspective. We can either change that by occupying their nation and taking hundreds of thousands of casualties, or we can pay them and we can just live together. I choose the latter.

1564.752 - 1587.037 Krystal Ball

I think most people do too. You know, it's very interesting to hear Trump say this, to say the least, because, I mean, this is what the Iranian bet was, right? They bet that we could not take the economic pain, that they could, and that it would hurt us more, and it would force us to come to the table and give them the terms that they had long been seeking.

1587.557 - 1608.76 Krystal Ball

This is confirmation that they were correct, that that bet ultimately paid off. You know, all the propaganda of FDD and others who were saying, oh, if you just if we do a blockade of their blockade, they're going to completely collapse. Remember that they were saying, oh, their oil wells are going to explode and they're going to completely collapse in days. Obviously, that did not happen.

1608.82 - 1636.335 Krystal Ball

And so here you have Trump acknowledging the reason for the timing of this deal is because we ran out of runway. We were weeks away from what he describes as bedlam because we were running too low on the strategic petroleum reserve. We weren't the only ones. The whole world's ability to absorb this extraordinarily, truly historic level of an energy shock, that was within days to weeks of

Chapter 7: What challenges does the U.S. face in negotiating with Iran?

1729.641 - 1749.972 Krystal Ball

Israel feels that this is existential. We're going to show you some of the continued freak out from their allies here, as well as some domestic, you know, intense supporters of Netanyahu, for example, who are just absolutely losing their minds. They will do whatever they can to undermine this. And Trump is very sensitive. His ego is very sensitive.

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1749.952 - 1771.343 Krystal Ball

you know, that he could wake up today, see news coverage he doesn't like, and go back to banging the drums of war. None of this is stable. The other thing I will just say on the politics of it is, you know, when Biden withdrew from Afghanistan, it's not exactly the same, but it is a bit of a similar moment of acknowledging the reality of this is a failed war. We've been here for decades.

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1771.443 - 1790.145 Krystal Ball

We didn't accomplish anything. Now is the time to pull the plug. What, we're going to stay there forever? That was Basically, the reason for the Afghan withdrawal was there is not going to be a good time to do this, so we're just going to do this and acknowledge the reality that is in front of everybody's eyes. People leading up to the withdrawal supported it overwhelmingly.

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1790.165 - 1808.447 Krystal Ball

If you polled the American people, we looked at these polls, they would say, yes, we should get out of Afghanistan. Then it happened, and it became the single most devastating blow to Biden's presidency. The reason being because there was such a united front across all media apparatus.

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1808.688 - 1815.116 Krystal Ball

There were very big, again, credit to Ro Khanna, he was one of the only ones who was willing to go out and defend Biden and his withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Chapter 8: How does Trump's approach to Iran differ from previous administrations?

1815.477 - 1828.474 Krystal Ball

There was such a blanket condemnation. Then, of course, like the horror of American service members being killed, the mess of all that surely did not help anything, although I don't know that there ever would have been a way that this could have gone completely smoothly. It really was like the death knell of his presidency.

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1828.454 - 1838.368 Krystal Ball

And so even though Trump here, you know, if this goes through, if we get to peace, et cetera, I mean, the fact that he brought us into war to begin with was an utter and complete disaster.

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1838.428 - 1861.759 Krystal Ball

And the acknowledgement of the reality of our losing this war, which is what happened, we lost the war, and what that means, what we're going to have to give in exchange for acknowledging that reality could be a death knell for Trump's presidency the way that the Afghan withdrawal was from Biden. Yeah, because it's like ending a war which you shouldn't have been in.

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1861.779 - 1871.911 Krystal Ball

That's why even navigating this is so difficult, right? You want to be like, wow, Mr. President, thank you for your strategic wisdom. It's like, well, you got us into this damn mess. Yeah, you're the reason that the Strait of Hormuz was closed in the first place.

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1872.172 - 1873.213 Carlos Prieto

And gas is what it is.

1873.433 - 1889.955 Krystal Ball

Actually, thank God, gas just hit $3.99 a gallon nationally. Good, you know, I'm happy. It was $2.50, so okay. You know, it's like, are we going to celebrate things? No, that's why instead of Trump, I'm just going to attack the people who are attacking the deal. That's going to be kind of my where I'm at. But, yeah, you're not wrong.

1890.015 - 1908.951 Krystal Ball

A lot of people are not going to forgive because it's not like things were all peachy here in the U.S. even before the U.S. went to war with Iran. Last thing, Matt Stoller had a good tweet months ago where he said, I'll believe that a deal is real when Trump starts praising the Iranians in a vaguely homosexual manner.

1908.931 - 1922.839 Krystal Ball

And his his nascent dude crushes were very on display, not necessarily to the Iranians here, but to a lot of the Arab allies who helped cement this peace deal. Let's take a listen.

1923.224 - 1950.652 Sean Gentile

Mr. President, I have a question. What a nice-looking person. Is he from your country? Is he from your country? Absolutely. No, he's got such a nice way about him. My people are so mean. Be careful. No, I can put him in a movie right now. Go ahead. He's a very tough negotiator, one of the toughest actually. So you look at this man, I'll give you a lesson. He's the most beautiful looking man.

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