Morgan Housel

And I think the most likely definition of trouble is 10 years of muddling economic growth with high inflation.

And by high inflation, I don't mean hyperinflation.

I mean, maybe it's four, five, 6%, which sucks and pisses a lot of people off.

but that's not collapse per se.

Even if collapse is one of the options, I don't think it's the most likely option.

It also hit me that, I said earlier, that what you just said, if you told me that in 2008, I would have said, and it didn't necessarily happen, it just hit me,

The year in which actually what you just said was being said by almost everybody was, yes, 2008, but more along, it was 1930 to 1932, that the most common narrative was printing money, devaluing currency, way too much debt, bad politicians, way too much inequality.

War is coming.

War is coming.

War came.

And it came.

That's what I'm saying.

And by the way, if that's the comparison of just, oh, we're just going to head into the Great Depression and World War II.

And by the way, World War II by and large happened because of the Great Depression.

Those two things are very closely linked, of course.

Correct.

And World War I before that.

But if I'm saying that's the analogy, well, that's not very optimistic.

as well, is it?

And the other period of just real shitshow economics was the 1970s.