Morgan Housel

But if you go back pre-World War I, certainly, the UK was the empire, the Queen Victoria area, that was the United States of its time.

And then it ceded that power, lost that power because it had way too much debt, particularly after World War II, way more than we had, and several terrible things that happened.

And by and large, it was a pleasant place to live over the last 80 years.

And so that's why I say,

The scenarios in which this could be, there's other scenarios other than Mad Max.

And that was what the UK did.

That was what the UK was.

The UK ceded its power, had high inflation, had high unemployment, but it was not Mad Max.

It was by and large a pretty pleasant and quaint place to live.

And I think that's the most likely outcome in the United States.

I think that's right.

And the other thing I would say about why the UK analogy probably isn't the best right now is because the UK ceded its empire to a friendly rival, the United States.

But when you go from number one to number two, and number one who replaces you is a friend, your closest friend, your best buddy in the world who wants you to win and you want them to win, that's different than if you cede your power, if the United States cedes its power to China.

Now, this is maybe a separate topic,

But what is now very well known and was in the headlines this week is to the extent to which China's birth rate has not collapsed.

It has just fallen through the floor.

The statistic this week was there were fewer babies born in China in 2025 than there were in 1776.

Yo.

Right.

And that's been going on for a very long time.