Nabeel Bhatti

They are winless away from home.

They've taken just two points from their eight away games so far.

They've scored only four goals.

They've conceded 16.

That's two per game.

So the underlying metrics also tell you that they are very poor on their travels.

They are minus 0.9 when it comes to non-penalty expected goals.

And they are very easy to play against when they travel.

They're actually giving up 3.75 big chances per game away from home on their travels as well.

So I'm going to take Lens to win it.

This is the type of game you're expected to win and win easily if you're going to actually challenge Paris Saint-Germain for the league.

And we'll tack on the tried and tested under four and a half goals here for this selection.

Only two of their 17 games have seen four or more goals.

Only one of those 17 games have featured five or more goals.

So I do think this is very safe with 16 of their 17 matches producing four

Fewer than five goals, a safe add-on.

So what we're looking at here in this selection, with this selection always, is 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 or 3-1.

And this improves your price to 5-6 minus 120 by adding this on.

So take longs, take longs to continue to win.

I don't think they'll end up winning the league.