Nancy Lazar

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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Well, that was a year ago, as you said.

And I would actually argue that you're starting to see a healing in the private sector labor market.

Now, a war, to be sure, will curb business confidence.

But wait a second.

I just got a bunch of business confidence surveys, a group of manufacturing surveys through March, which captured the war and the increase of the price of oil.

And their employment indices actually rose.

So I think you have to look at the economy broader than just a war and increase in the price of oil.

I'm not sure the war itself is a stimulus other than the backbone of the U.S.

economy is indeed strong.

We've had surges in the price of oil several times over the past 30, 40 years.

Obviously, in the 1990 Gulf War, the economy wasn't as strong then as it is today.

But boy, as that thing ended, oil prices came down strong.

Obviously, the next leg was the U.S.

tech revolution.

And then after 2008, you also had a surge in the price of oil.

Then you had almost a decade prior to COVID.