Nancy Lazar

a decade of a stronger U.S.

economy supported by domestic capital spending.

We had even more recently a surge in the price of oil.

Obviously, back in 21, you went from $50 to $120.

The U.S.

economy stumbled slightly in the first part of 22, but then we took off again, supported by capital spending.

So the thing that I keep reminding myself is that the economy is not just driven by one variable.

It's not just oil.

It's a function of monetary fiscal policy in general.

And fiscal policy right now is underappreciated as a support in what I would call the right way, not through a boom in government spending, but companies have just seen $180 billion decline in their cash tax payments.

because they're incentivized to do capital spending.

Deregulation is underway.

And that's beneficial to small, medium-sized businesses.

I hear it particularly from the banking system.

Banks are easing lending standards.

So right now, we for sure are at risk of the U.S.

economy slowing, stalling out.

Depends upon how long the surge in the price of oil goes on.

But this is a pretty strong economy.

So the consumer is a little bit in a tug of war.