Nancy Lazar

On one hand, obviously, consumer confidence is down.

We have a daily survey of consumer confidence, which is a little nuts, but it works.

And it is down about 15 points, but it's still above where it was during the government shutdown, way above where it was during the COVID low.

way above where it was during the GFC.

So consumer confidence has gotten hit.

But at the same time, we monitor your weekly retail sales data.

And actually, through mid-March, we're on the stronger side.

That is, again, consumer is driven by more than just gasoline.

We have these tax refunds.

To be sure, some of them are being eaten up by the higher gasoline prices.

But the labor market, as I mentioned, if you look at unemployment claims, and I'm seeing more and more commentary on Bloomberg, on other news programs, that, wow, the labor market may not be as weak as I thought.

Claims are indeed in a declining trend.

That's helping the consumer.

So first, energy spikes are a tax on the U.S.

economy unless the Fed monetizes them, as they did during the 1970s.

So you do that by just cutting rates, cutting rates.

putting liquidity in the economy.

You had double-digit money growth in the 70s, very, very, and you had double-digit money growth 21, 22, which is why inflation was indeed more sticky.

But similar to a year ago when you had the tariffs, almost a year ago, you had the tariffs.

Our point then was it was a tax.