Nate Cohn

Now, obviously, this is a more polarized era.

Whether the Democrats can appeal as broadly as Barack Obama did in 2008 is an open question.

But when the president's approval rating starts sinking lower than the 40s and you start giving up traditional Republican-leaning voters, the opportunities for a more decisive Democratic victory start to come into view.

I think that's absolutely right.

I mentioned earlier that a majority of Republicans want to follow Donald Trump's lead in 2028 rather than go in a new direction.

Well, the general electorate wants a new direction by a three to one margin.

That's a big disconnect between the general electorate's desires and what the Republican Party is about to give the general electorate.

And, you know, for all of the talk about the challenges facing the Democratic Party, that mismatch seems like the biggest one to me.

We've had change election after change election over the last two decades.

If the Republican Party really wants to serve the general electorate the same thing again, I think that they would be in a lot of trouble in 26 and 28.

Thanks for having me.

Donald Trump entered office with relatively broad support among the American people.

He won the popular vote, albeit narrowly, but he won the popular vote nonetheless.

And voters were optimistic, or at least hopeful, that he would return the economy back to something like the pre-pandemic normal, the economy we had when he was president the first time around.

His approval rating as he entered office was in the 50s.

These are really strong numbers for him.

Usually Donald Trump had approval ratings in the low 40s or even the 30s.

So as Donald Trump entered office, he entered with a much broader coalition, with an electorate that was much more hopeful about what a second term for President Trump might look like.

They thought he might get the border under control and reduce crime.

And he also entered as a kind of cultural phenomenon in a way that he hadn't previously.