Nate Cohn

And again, the generational divide here is really stark.

On all of the foreign policy issues –

Young Republicans under age 44, they line up against him and often by wide two to one or more margins.

I'll also note, by the way, that that includes the question of Republican support for Israel.

A majority of young Republicans think that Donald Trump is too supportive of Israel and disapprove of his handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

So that's very different from what we've seen before from Republicans.

And I will say that it happens to echo something we have seen in the elite discourse among Republicans.

We've seen prominent podcasters like Tucker Carlson or Joe Rogan or even Nick Fuentes take these positions on Israel and Trump's foreign policy that we can see echoed in public opinion among younger Republicans.

If by relevant you mean relevant to determining which party wins the 2028 general election.

You read me correctly.

Then I think you have a fair point.

The president's approval rating is under 40.

The Democrats would be pretty clearly favored to win in 2028.

There's no precedent for the president's party retaining the White House when his approval rating is under 40%, let alone even lower than that.

And I think the clearest example of that in recent memory is what happened to George W. Bush.

Hmm.

I mean, at almost this exact time, 20 years ago, George W. Bush's approval rating fell under 40% to about the number where Donald Trump is today, thanks to a combination of quagmire in the Middle East and high gas prices.

And while it took a while, his ratings kept falling and ultimately landed in the 20s.

And the Democrats, of course, won decisively in the 2008 general election.

Barack Obama won by seven points, and they came out of that election with nearly filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a large majority in the House of Representatives.